I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Collin Morikawa	0.444
Andrew Putnam	0.407
Corey Conners	0.390
Tony Finau	0.385
Jon Rahm	0.368
Jordan Spieth	0.367
Hideki Matsuyama	0.359
Sam Burns	0.351

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2718.4
Rory McIlroy	2	2480.4
Patrick Cantlay	3	2309.9
Xander Schauffele	4	2196.1
Jon Rahm	5	2087.4
Viktor Hovland	6	1833.9
Tyrrell Hatton	7	1773.9
Max Homa	8	1642.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Cameron Smith	9	1556.4
Will Zalatoris	10	1533.7
Justin Thomas	16	1350.4
Dustin Johnson	21	1295.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Brian Harman	2489.8
Rory McIlroy	1758.5
JT Poston	1753.3
Tommy Fleetwood	1610.9
Byeong Hun An	1533.0
Emiliano Grillo	1464.5
Scottie Scheffler	1279.7
Lucas Glover	1035.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sahith Theegala	-978.6
Justin Rose	-961.5
Tony Finau	-823.3
Taylor Montgomery	-767.2
Kurt Kitayama	-766.7
Matt Fitzpatrick	-764.3
Seamus Power	-712.2
Matt Kuchar	-685.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Southwind course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.21	Shots gained in approach
0.16	Shots gained off the tee
0.15	Shots gained around the green
0.09	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	67.79
Rory McIlroy	68.07
Jon Rahm	68.77
Collin Morikawa	69.07
Patrick Cantlay	69.09
Tony Finau	69.14
Tyrrell Hatton	69.14
Rickie Fowler	69.15

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	70.7
Sam Ryder	70.6
Mac Hughes	70.4
Andrew Putnam	70.4
Harris English	70.4
Seamus Power	70.4
Beau Hossler	70.3
Hayden Buckley	70.3

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Memphis TN, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Lee Hodges	Athens AL	175
Davis Riley	Hattiesburg MS	275
Stephan Jaeger	Chattanooga TN	275
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	275
Sam Burns	Shreveport LA	275
Brendon Todd	Watkinsville GA	375
Sepp Straka	Athens GA	375
Chris Kirk	Athens GA	375

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.370
I love this place	0.174
Ooh, that’s hot	0.137
Location, location, location	0.056