FedEx St. Jude Championship Power Ratings

08
Aug

FedEx St. Jude Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Since 2019, when the FedEx St. Jude Championship vacated its prior June slot in favor of the larger-purse, end-of-the-season slot it occupies now, it has been about average compared to all Tour events in terms of performance of the top picks. Which is to say that there is plenty of opportunity for someone outside the top niche to step up and win. Looking at the top eight picks over the last four years, only 10 of those 32 players finished in the event top 10, and only two (Justin Thomas in 2020 and Brooks Koepka in 2019) were winners. Last year it was Will Zalatoris, who is injured and not playing, and in 2021 it was Abraham Ancer, now with LIV.

It is no surprise that the top picks this year are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele. Rahm and Scheffler are far ahead of the pack in terms of FedEx Cup points, with 3320 and 3146, respectively, and then McIlroy in third with 2304.

Over the past eight years, players who can get off the tee and manage play heading into the greens have fared well at the TPC Southwind course. Players with good numbers in shots gained in approach, shots gained off the tee, and shots gained in approach have fared well statistically, and driving distance is next in significance. Based on that analysis, Sheffler is well ahead of the pack in fit for the course, and McIlroy is well ahead of Rahm.

Other players who seem to be good fits for the course and who have been playing well recently include Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Wyndham Clark, and Byeong Hun An.

Scottie Scheffler

Pick	Player	Power Number	Actual Finish
1	Scottie Scheffler	-29.0	31
2	Rory McIlroy	-22.7	3
3	Patrick Cantlay	-6.7	2
4	Jon Rahm	-6.6	37
5	Xander Schauffele	-3.9	24
6	Tyrrell Hatton	10.0	43
7	Viktor Hovland	10.7	13
8	Max Homa	15.9	6
9	Tommy Fleetwood	16.2	3
10	Rickie Fowler	18.4	58
11	Brian Harman	19.4	31
12	Jordan Spieth	24.1	6
13	Sungjae Im	25.0	6
14	Sam Burns	26.7	52
15	Tom Kim	27.3	24
16	Collin Morikawa	28.4	13
17	Tony Finau	30.8	64
18	Jason Day	31.4	52
19	Wyndham Clark	31.6	66
20	Russell Henley	31.9	6
21	Corey Conners	32.5	6
22	Matt Fitzpatrick	32.5	66
23	Denny McCarthy	32.9	66
24	Hideki Matsuyama	33.1	16
25	JT Poston	35.5	24
26	Cameron Young	35.6	31
27	Keegan Bradley	38.3	43
28	Byeong Hun An	38.4	37
29	Cam Davis	39.2	6
30	Emiliano Grillo	39.3	20
31	Sepp Straka	41.4	63
32	Justin Rose	43.2	20
33	Keith Mitchell	45.9	43
34	Taylor Moore	46.0	5
35	Sahith Theegala	46.2	13
36	Harris English	47.0	52
37	Adam Hadwin	47.0	16
38	Si Woo Kim	47.4	16
39	Andrew Putnam	47.4	24
40	Brendon Todd	48.0	43
41	Seamus Power	49.1	66
42	Matt Kuchar	49.3	61
43	Chris Kirk	49.7	16
44	Tom Hoge	50.6	43
45	Stephan Jaeger	50.7	20
46	Eric Cole	50.8	31
47	Lee Hodges	51.1	31
48	Aaron Rai	51.4	49
49	Lucas Glover	51.7	1
50	Beau Hossler	51.7	20
51	Adam Schenk	51.9	6
52	Thomas Detry	52.0	61
53	Adam Svensson	53.0	37
54	Nick Taylor	53.3	24
55	Kurt Kitayama	53.7	52
56	JJ Spaun	53.9	24
57	Alex Smalley	54.4	65
58	Taylor Montgomery	54.6	37
59	Davis Riley	55.5	43
60	Ben Griffin	55.5	24
61	Mark Hubbard	55.6	66
62	Nick Hardy	56.5	49
63	Patrick Rodgers	56.7	52
64	Sam Ryder	58.8	31
65	Matthew NeSmith	59.7	58
66	Hayden Buckley	60.5	52
67	Mac Hughes	62.4	58
68	Vincent Norrman	62.7	49
69	Brandon Wu	62.9	37
70	Sam Stevens	65.0	37
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Aug. 14, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 227. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.