I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.647
Brian Harman	0.612
Corey Conners	0.533
Emiliano Grillo	0.485
Sungjae Im	0.470
Jordan Spieth	0.436
JT Poston	0.414
Tommy Fleetwood	0.410

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2987.7
Xander Schauffele	2	2376.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2183.9
Patrick Cantlay	4	2051.4
Ludvig Aberg	5	1766.8
Viktor Hovland	7	1673.6
Max Homa	8	1664.5
Tommy Fleetwood	10	1516.2

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	6	1704.7
Tyrrell Hatton	9	1629.0
Hideki Matsuyama	12	1394.5
Adam Scott	25	1257.2

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Adam Schenk	1497.5
Ludvig Aberg	1267.0
Akshay Bhatia	1163.7
Scottie Scheffler	1154.4
Mac Hughes	1064.2
Brendon Todd	956.4
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	947.9
Taylor Moore	903.6

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Viktor Hovland	-1181.8
Jordan Spieth	-1044.7
Sam Burns	-990.5
Tom Kim	-948.5
Justin Thomas	-936.1
Justin Rose	-832.1
Eric Cole	-797.8
JT Poston	-784.3

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Harbour Town course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.30	Shots gained off the tee
0.19	Driving accuracy
0.18	Sand saves
0.14	Shots gained around the green

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	70.27
Xander Schauffele	70.54
Si Woo Kim	70.71
Byeong Hun An	71.46
Wyndham Clark	71.58
Grayson Murray	71.64
Chris Kirk	71.68
Adam Schenk	71.95

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Justin Thomas	74.6
Taylor Moore	74.4
Victor Perez	74.3
Keegan Bradley	74.2
Patrick Rodgers	73.4
Ludvig Aberg	73.4
Collin Morikawa	73.3
Tony Finau	73.3

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Hilton Head Island SC, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island, GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island, GA	75
Harris English	Sea Island, GA	175
Brendon Todd	Watkinsville, GA	200
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	200
Alejandro Tosti	Gainesville, FL	200
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	200
Ludvig Aberg	Tallahassee FL	250

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.372
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.141
Location, location, location	0.051