I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.721
Max Homa	0.604
Rickie Fowler	0.601
Brian Harman	0.519
Corey Conners	0.503
Keegan Bradley	0.502
Xander Schauffele	0.465
Emiliano Grillo	0.448

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	2	2279.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2190.0
Patrick Cantlay	4	2038.6
Ludvig Aberg	5	1807.3
Viktor Hovland	6	1695.8
Max Homa	8	1615.2
Wyndham Clark	10	1576.0
Tommy Fleetwood	11	1486.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3066.1
Jon Rahm	7	1668.6
Tyrrell Hatton	9	1604.1
Adam Scott	24	1242.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Ludvig Aberg	1504.9
Chad Ramey	1325.7
Hideki Matsuyama	1284.7
Kevin Tway	1245.6
Akshay Bhatia	1194.5
Adam Schenk	1153.8
Sepp Straka	1024.8
Chris Kirk	808.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Viktor Hovland	-1204.0
Sam Burns	-1076.2
Xander Schauffele	-1046.6
Justin Thomas	-907.8
Patrick Cantlay	-824.0
Cameron Young	-809.7
Keegan Bradley	-776.6
Sahith Theegala	-775.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Quail Hollow Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.20	Shots gained off the tee
0.17	Shots gained in approach
0.14	Sand saves
0.10	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Xander Schauffele	72.90
Si Woo Kim	73.62
Wyndham Clark	73.66
Hideki Matsuyama	74.06
Chris Kirk	74.10
Byeong Hun An	74.10
Tony Finau	74.62
Shane Lowry	74.74

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Moore	76.0
Keegan Bradley	75.8
Collin Morikawa	75.6
Justin Thomas	75.4
Stephan Jaeger	75.2
Ludvig Aberg	75.1
Billy Horschel	75.1
Austin Eckroat	75.1

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Charlotte NC, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	1
Webb Simpson	Charlotte, NC	1
Grayson Murray	Raleigh, NC	125
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	150
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	175
Brendon Todd	Watkinsville, GA	175
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	175
Wesley Bryan	Alpharetta, GA	200

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.050