Dustin Johnson, no. 1 in the world and with his mid-season slump having disappeared into the past, remains the guy to beat this week as the PGA Tour moves into the home stretch with the BMW Championship, the second-to-last event of the season. In his last five starts, Johnson has the win in the Northern Trust, the first event of the FedEx Cup series, plus two top-20s, a top-15, and a top-10 finish in the Canadian Open. Johnson has two wins in the BMW in the last seven years, although both were on courses different than the Conway Farms layout in Lake Forest IL where they are playing this week. Last year he won by three strokes over Paul Casey at Crooked Stick in Carmel IN, and in 2010 he beat Casey by one stroke at Cog Hill in Lemont IL. He’s third in FedEx Cup points, behind Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.

In focusing strictly on Conway Farms, the no. 1 statistic in correlation with success is greens in regulation, and by a large margin. Also having good correlation are driving accuracy, putting, and scrambling. The top player in the field per the Hawley course fit statistics is Kyle Stanley, with Henrik Stenson slightly behind and Sergio Garcia and Spieth next. Stanley is the Tour leader in greens in regulation percentage, in the top 15 in driving accuracy, and near the Tour average in the other two stats.

Depending on what measurement you use, Casey, Spieth, and Thomas are the hottest players in the field. Thomas has the best numbers over his last four appearances (including wins in the PGA and Dell), Spieth is best over the last nine events, and Casey is second in both the four-event and nine-event windows. If you’re interested in finding someone with a lower profile, some non-top-10 players who have picked it up and significantly outplayed their overall rating in recent events include Kevin Na, Ian Poulter, Patrick Reed, and Hudson Swafford.

The field this week is 70 players. They hack it down to just 30 big boys for the Tour Championship a week later.