After taking three weeks off, Dustin Johnson rejoins the PGA Tour this week in Shanghai, China, where the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions is being played. The Sheshan International GC (West) is hosting for the 12th time in the 13 HSBC Champions competitions. At last sighting, Johnson was leading the U.S. to an easy win in the President’s Cup with a 4-0-1 record in the mixed-format event. The week prior, he finished mid-pack in the Tour Championship.

The Hawley course fit statistics indicate that scrambling, greens in regulation, and driving distance are the top three stats in correlation with success at Sheshan. That works for Johnson, who is no. 1 in the field in fitfor the course, ahead of Tommy Fleetwood, defending champ Hideki Matsuyama, and Paul Casey. Johnson has played the event four of the last five years and won in 2013. Casey is the no. 2 choice overall. Casey has five finishes in the top 25 in the event since 2010, including a top-10. He’s been playing steadily outstanding golf for about five months.

Two players with good track histories in the event but who are down the list of favorites a bit are Francesco Molinari and Ian Poulter.

The software is pointing at rookie Tyler Duncan in the (much) smaller-purse Sanderson Farms Championship that also is being played this week, except a lot closer to PGA Tour headquarters. The site is Jackson MS and the Country Club of Jackson, which has been host of the event four years running. Duncan is a Tour rookie who played solidly through the Web.com Tour championship series and led the first event of the PGA Tour 2017-’18 season, the Safeway Open, after three rounds and ended up fifth. The software algorithms at work in making these selections are fairly quick to identify blossoming talent, with Jon Rahm last year and Patrick Cantlay this year being excellent examples. This time it is suggesting the Purdue product Duncan, playing in an event that is lacking any big names.

For a more traditional pick, try William McGirt. McGirt made the cut here for five years in a row, 2011 to 2015, including three top-10s and the runner-up spot in 2015. Jason Bohn and 2011 winner Chris Kirk also show some repeated success in this event.

Scrambling and greens in regulation are the top predictive statistics for CC of Jackson. The best fit for the course is Zac Blair, who is well down the list of top picks. Seamus Power is second.