We have a real anomaly occuring this weekend – the field in the Euro Tour event, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship presented by EGA, is significantly stronger than the field in the PGA Tour event, the CareerBuilder Challenge. It’s because of an influx of PGA Tour players, several making an 8,600-mile flight due west from Hawaii, to the Arabian Peninsula. The U.S. natives among this group include world no. 1 Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar, plus PGA Tour regulars Paul Casey, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Henrik Stenson. The upshot of it is that there are three players at Abu Dhabi rated higher in the Hawley Ratings than the highest-rated player in the CareerBuilder, Jon Rahm.
If you look at the top 10 players in the Hawley Ratings in both events, the Abu Dhabi field has totaled ratings 18% higher than the CareerBuilder. Even if you go all the way to include the top 20, the Abu Dhabi field is 5% stronger.
As far as the CareerBuilder event picks go, Phil Mickelson rates slightly ahead of Rahm. Mickelson gets the nod because he has a solid track record in this event (once in the top 10 and twice in the top 25 in the last three years) and has been better in his most recent appearances (September-October). If we look only at the Hawley Ratings, the course-fit number, or performance going farther back, the needle would point toward Rahm.
As has been done the past few years, the event is played on three courses from among the many available in the Indian Wells/ La Quinta/ Palm Springs area. Everyone will play the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta CC in the first three days before all those who make the cut appear at PGA West Stadium on Sunday.
Players with the best records in this event over recent years include Bill Haas, Ryan Palmer, Charles Howell, and Matt Kuchar, the latter of whom is at Abu Dhabi. Haas won the event in 2010 and 2015. Those whose games are the best fits for the array of courses are Rahm, Chesson Hadley, Peter Uihlein, and Brandon Hagy. The stats with the strongest correlation with success here are putting and scrambling.
Speaking of Mickelson, a humorous scene occurred at the PGA West Stadium first tee two years ago. My wife and I were watching as Mickelson came out of the chute separating the players from the first-tee crowd, shaking all the hands that were stuck out at him without really paying attention to any of them. He got to the end of the gantlet and then realized that one of the hands belonged to ex-President Bill Clinton, whose Clinton Foundation has been a sponsor of the event. Mickelson quickly back-tracked and he and the former leader of the free world shared a laugh.