In addition to being the annual visit to one of the world’s truly iconic golf courses, Pebble Beach Golf Links, this week is notable in presenting the somewhat rare occurrence of the world’s no. 1 and no. 2 players (per the Hawley Ratings) squaring off against each other. That is Dustin Johnson, with two January appearances, including the win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and Paul Casey, making only his second appearance of the year. In this case, the nod goes oh-so-slightly toward Casey, on the assumption that he is able to continue the remarkable and remarkably consistent level of play that he has shown over the last 10 months. In 18 appearances going back to the 2017 Dell Technologies Match Play event, Casey has 10 finishes in the top 10, five in the top 20, and three between 21st and 33rd; no missed cuts.
Johnson, of course, is no slouch either. In the same span he has 19 appearances, seven in the top 10, seven in the top 20, and five others including two missed cuts. The two appeared in the same event as recently as mid-January, when they tied for ninth at the Euro Tour Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Johnson and Casey will have plenty of competition from among golf’s upper ranks. In the field are five others from the world top 10 – Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Patrick Cantlay – four more from the top 20, and 10 more from the top 50. Contenders who have the best records in this event over the years include Day, JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson, Pat Perez, Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, and Spieth.
As always the event is played on multiple courses. Each player will appear at Monterey Peninsula, Pebble Beach, and Spyglass Hill over the first three days. The statistics most highly correlated with success over the blended set of three courses are driving distance and greens in regulation. This makes McIlroy the top player in the field from the perspective of the Hawley course fit statistics. Others who seem to have the characteristics for success include Spieth, last week’s winner Gary Woodland, and Chesson Hadley.
Among the less prominent players who appear to be on the upswing are Brian Gay, James Hahn, Brandon Harkins, and Tom Hoge.