This weekend the beautiful and spectator-friendly course at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades CA will be host to our second match-up in the last two weeks of the no. 1 vs. no. 2 players in the Hawley Ratings. We are referring to Genesis Open defending champion Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey, and again the slight edge from this vantage point goes to the no. 2-rated Casey. Although no one would say that last week’s Pebble Beach event unfolded as a Johnson vs. Casey battle, both finished in the top 10 and each had the edge in two of four rounds when comparing their scores on a course-by-course basis. In Casey’s favor is a performance edge and consistency over the past 10 months. In Johnson’s favor is almost (but not quite) the same level of performance and probably the best record in this event of anyone in the field.
In 19 appearances going back to the 2017 Dell Technologies Match Play event, Casey has 11 finishes in the top 10, five in the top 20, and three between 21st and 33rd; no missed cuts. In the same span, Johnson has 20 appearances, eight in the top 10, seven in the top 20, and five others including two missed cuts. This will be their third appearance in the same event in 2018. In mid-January they tied for ninth at the Euro Tour Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Last week Johnson was second and Casey eighth.
Again the event has attracted a strong field. Jordan Spieth will be on hand, making it all of the top three in the Hawley Ratings. Also from the top 10 are Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay. Half of the next 10 also are entered.
No one in the field comes close to Chez Reavie in terms of how the player’s recent performance represents an improvement over long-range form. Reavie has been runner-up two weeks running. Another player who appears much improved is Brandon Harkins, a 31-year-old rookie from California. Brian Gay, well into his second decade on the Tour, is playing well of late. Also maybe consider Kevin Chappell, Harris English, and Sam Saunders.
Greens in regulation and driving distance are the statistics most closely correlated to success on this course per the Hawley course fit statistics. The solid top pick from that perspective is Englishman Tommy Fleetwood. A little farther back are Spieth, McIlroy, and Martin Kaymer, in that order.