I’m pretty sure you don’t care about doing this, but let’s just say you checked today’s Official World Golf Ratings, and there’s Bryson DeChambeau up from 12th last week to seventh now. And then you want to compare his rating with the one in the Hawley Ratings. Dig, dig, scroll down, and there he is, 28th, up from 36th last week. What gives?

It’s easy to overlook with DeChambeau having won the first two events in this year’s FedEx Cup series, but he’s had two stretches this year where he wasn’t performing anywhere near this well. From late July thru early August, he went thru a sequence where he withdrew from the Deere, was 51st in the British, made the top 20 in the soft field Porsche (Euro tour), was 30th in the Bridgestone, and missed the cut in the PGA. Earlier, from mid-January to mid-March, he missed the cut at Abu Dhabi (Euro tour) and the Farmers, made the top 10 at Phoenix, was 55th at the Pebble, outside the top 40 at the Genesis, and missed the cut at the Valspar. This not to knock DeChambeau, just noting that what you see now needs to be viewed with a wider lens if you want to be doing ratings-type comparisons.

Also, note that the Hawley Ratings provide a more accurate basis for predicting the outcome of events than the Official World Golf Ratings do. This statement is made after a detailed statistical comparison extending over multiple years. (The full detail will be provided at this website out toward the end of the year.)

The third stop in the FedEx Cup sequence is this weekend outside of Philadelphia and we have DeChambeau no better than the 17th pick. Obviously he’s the best guy in the field over the last two events, but even if you look at the last four, which is a very strong indicator of future performance, several others are better, and Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas are quite a bit better. Koepka was fifth in the Bridgestone, won the PGA, and then posted finishes of eighth and 12th in the first two FedEx Cup events. Thomas won the Bridgestone, was in the top 10 in the PGA and Northern Trust, and then finished 24th last weekend.

The top pick again is Dustin Johnson. Johnson has only one clunker on his resume going back to April. That’s a missed cut at the British Open. In 11 other events in that span, he’s won twice, finished in the top 10 five other times, and has three other top-20 finishes. Other than the British, his next-worst finish was in the top 30 at the PGA. Also Johnson is easily the top money-winner in this event over the past eight years, having won it in 2010 and 2016.

You may discount that stat to some extent because the event hops around various courses, generally in the Midwest. However, Johnson also looms as one of the better fits for the Aronimink Golf Club course. This was the site of two PGA Tour events early in the decade (AT&T National in 2010 and 2011), and the Hawley course fit statistics say that scrambling and driving distance were the stats most closely associated with success on the course those two years. The best fits for the course per individual stat profiles are Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Luke List, and Johnson. Not far behind are Thomas, Tony Finau, Bubba Watson, and Brendan Steele.

A few players a little lower on the list of top choices deserve attention. The baby-faced Australian Cameron Smith, quickly leaving his “no-name” status behind after back-to-back third-place finishes in the Northern Trust and Dell, obviously tops the list. CT Pan, with two top-10s in his last three appearances, is another. Also playing markedly better recently are Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise, Billy Horschel, and Daniel Berger.

Aronimink has been at the present site in Newtown Square, about 25 miles west of the Liberty Bell Center in downtown Philly, for over 90 years. Winners of the AT&T National events there were Justin Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011).