Jun
A look at the U.S. Open
I love this place!
Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.
| Player | History |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 0.864 |
| Rory McIlroy | 0.773 |
| Jon Rahm | 0.736 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.727 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.703 |
| Brooks Koepka | 0.627 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0.612 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0.591 |
Top of the heap
The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 1 | 3246.8 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 | 2487.9 |
| Rory McIlroy | 3 | 2332.2 |
| Viktor Hovland | 4 | 1887.4 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 5 | 1844.6 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 6 | 1797.1 |
| Collin Morikawa | 7 | 1686.3 |
| Max Homa | 8 | 1603.6 |
Sorry, can’t make it
The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Scott | 30 | 1206.3 |
| Patrick Reed | 49 | 949.3 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 56 | 893.5 |
| Keith Mitchell | 57 | 884.1 |
Ooh, that’s hot
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Upward change |
|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 2079.4 |
| Sepp Straka | 1711.1 |
| Sungjae Im | 1272.5 |
| Billy Horschel | 1060.7 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1040.9 |
| Justin Thomas | 1003.9 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 979.7 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 955.4 |
Brr, that’s cold
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Downward change |
|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | -1505.9 |
| Cameron Young | -889.2 |
| Adam Schenk | -879.5 |
| Chris Kirk | -878.8 |
| Wyndham Clark | -851.2 |
| Jon Rahm | -831.0 |
| Rickie Fowler | -822.2 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -792.7 |
Certain skills required
Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical U.S. Open course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on Open courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.
| Stat value | Statistic |
|---|---|
| 0.25 | Shots gained putting |
| 0.19 | Shots gained off the tee |
| 0.11 | Shots gained around the green |
| 0.11 | Shots gained in approach |
Location, location, location
Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 70.59 |
| Xander Schauffele | 71.29 |
| Rory McIlroy | 71.46 |
| Tom McKibbin | 71.83 |
| Richard Mansell | 71.84 |
| Wyndham Clark | 71.87 |
| Sahith Theegala | 72.04 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 72.05 |
Anyplace but here
Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | 74.3 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 74.3 |
| Zac Blair | 74.2 |
| Ben Kohles | 74.1 |
| Gary Woodland | 74.1 |
| Nick Dunlap | 74.0 |
| Cam Davis | 73.8 |
| Justin Rose | 73.8 |
Staying close to home
Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Pinehurst NC, the event host city.
| Player | Residence | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Chesson Hadley | Raleigh NC | 50 |
| Akshay Bhatia | Wake Forest, NC | 75 |
| Webb Simpson | Charlotte, NC | 75 |
| Mac Hughes | Charlotte, NC | 75 |
| Chris Kirk | Athens, GA | 225 |
| Brendon Todd | Watkinsville, GA | 250 |
| Peter Malnati | Knoxville, TN | 250 |
| Greyson Sigg | St. Simons Island, GA | 300 |
| Davis Thompson | St. Simons Island, GA | 300 |
| Brian Harman | St. Simons Island, GA | 300 |
| Matt Kuchar | St. Simons Island, GA | 300 |
| JT Poston | St. Simons Island, GA | 300 |
Mathematically speaking
The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.
| Statistic | Correlation to results |
|---|---|
| Top of the heap | 0.377 |
| I love this place | 0.181 |
| Ooh, that’s hot | 0.130 |
| Location, location, location | 0.047 |
