I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Cameron Smith	0.763
Patrick Reed	0.760
Scottie Scheffler	0.738
Jon Rahm	0.736
Hideki Matsuyama	0.711
Xander Schauffele	0.681
Collin Morikawa	0.677
Tommy Fleetwood	0.650

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3103.8
Rory McIlroy	2	2572.3
Collin Morikawa	3	2322.1
Xander Schauffele	4	2303.6
Russell Henley	5	1987.6
Patrick Cantlay	6	1928.3
Tommy Fleetwood	7	1810.1
Justin Thomas	8	1734.9

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Alex Noren	21	1314.0
Luke Clanton	22	1313.1
Si Woo Kim	38	1149.6
Bud Cauley	40	1130.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Corey Conners	2292.4
Sepp Straka	1835.8
JJ Spaun	1800.2
Shane Lowry	1574.1
Min Woo Lee	1540.4
Collin Morikawa	1537.2
Aaron Rai	1527.1
Tom Hoge	1228.1

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Xander Schauffele	-1367.2
Sam Burns	-1256.5
Cam Davis	-976.5
Sungjae Im	-975.5
Tony Finau	-848.1
Max Homa	-838.5
Adam Scott	-831.4
Sahith Theegala	-769.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Augusta National course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Putts per GIR
0.16	Greens in regulation
0.13	Shots gained off the tee
0.13	Scrambling

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Tyrrell Hatton	74.40
Justin Thomas	74.42
Cam Davis	74.72
Justin Rose	74.73
Collin Morikawa	74.77
Jason Day	74.92
Min Woo Lee	74.97
Lucas Glover	74.97

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Thriston Lawrence	76.2
Danny Willett	75.9
Jhonattan Vegas	75.8
Patrick Reed	75.8
Laurie Canter	75.8
Xander Schauffele	75.7
Tom Kim	75.7
Adam Schenk	75.6

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Augusta GA, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	75
Brian Campbell	Hilton Head Island, SC	125
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Patton Kizzire	St. Simons Island, GA	175
JT Poston	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Harris English	Sea Island, GA	175

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.371
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.119
Location, location, location	0.015