I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .595 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.726
Brian Harman	0.676
Sungjae Im	0.588
JT Poston	0.546
Collin Morikawa	0.527
Corey Conners	0.523
Justin Thomas	0.507
Jordan Spieth	0.463

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3171.8
Xander Schauffele	3	2383.0
Collin Morikawa	4	2362.4
Russell Henley	5	1915.9
Patrick Cantlay	6	1875.7
Tommy Fleetwood	7	1817.3
Ludvig Aberg	8	1812.0
Corey Conners	9	1808.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	2	2670.9
Hideki Matsuyama	12	1556.8
Jon Rahm	15	1435.4
Bryson DeChambeau	19	1416.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Bud Cauley	2343.6
Tom Hoge	2134.2
Corey Conners	1887.9
Collin Morikawa	1637.6
Ryan Gerard	1422.2
Shane Lowry	1329.3
Daniel Berger	1325.8
Robert MacIntyre	1199.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sam Burns	-1217.5
Tony Finau	-1103.8
Adam Scott	-1096.2
Cam Davis	-940.9
Nick Dunlap	-708.6
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-687.1
Thomas Detry	-684.4
Cameron Young	-651.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Harbour Town course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.19	Greens in regulation
0.16	Shots gained off the tee
0.16	Sand saves
0.12	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sepp Straka	73.49
Russell Henley	73.53
Nick Taylor	73.59
Taylor Pendrith	73.65
Patrick Cantlay	73.67
JJ Spaun	73.67
Collin Morikawa	73.68
Robert MacIntyre	73.73

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Cameron Young	74.7
Justin Rose	74.7
Andrew Novak	74.7
Max Homa	74.7
Eric Cole	74.7
Matthieu Pavon	74.6
Aldrich Potgieter	74.6
Patrick Rodgers	74.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Hilton Head Island, the event host.

Player	Residence	Distance
Brian Campbell	Hilton Head Island, SC	1
Andrew Novak	St. Simons Island, GA	75
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island, GA	75
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island, GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island, GA	75
Ben Griffin	St. Simons Island, GA	75
Nico Echavarria	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.373
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.120
Location, location, location	0.013