I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.830
Patrick Reed	0.793
Keith Mitchell	0.627
Joel Dahmen	0.625
Pat Perez	0.589
Brian Harman	0.585
Paul Casey	0.560
Luke List	0.503

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	8	1208.1
Corey Conners	15	1029.5
Paul Casey	16	1026.7
Matthew Fitzpatrick	18	950.5
Cameron Young	20	942.9
Russell Henley	21	937.5
Tyrrell Hatton	22	931.0
Seamus Power	31	814.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1542.7
Patrick Cantlay	2	1398.4
Justin Thomas	3	1358.1
Scottie Scheffler	4	1314.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Matthew NeSmith	1708.6
Brendan Steele	1396.6
Matt Kuchar	1368.2
Anirban Lahiri	1339.8
Corey Conners	1305.6
Troy Merritt	921.5
David Lipsky	804.3
Matthew Fitzpatrick	683.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-742.7
Matthew Wolff	-531.4
Charley Hoffman	-469.8
Webb Simpson	-419.8
Abraham Ancer	-404.3
Pat Perez	-363.9
Russell Knox	-358.6
Lanto Griffin	-333.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course (TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm) within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.40	Driving accuracy
0.31	Shots gained in approach
0.13	Shots gained off the tee
0.07	Shots gained putting

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Chez Reavie	69.18
Corey Conners	69.26
Abraham Ancer	69.30
Ryan Armour	69.42
Brian Stuard	69.51
Russell Henley	69.54
Hayden Buckley	69.64
Russell Knox	69.81

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Martin Trainer	73.3
Kevin Chappell	73.1
Peter Uihlein	72.9
Seung-yul Noh	72.8
Jim Knous	72.8
Brandon Hagy	72.7
Jonas Blixt	72.6
Jared Wolfe	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Marc Leishman	Virginia Beach VA	175
Brandon Wu	Scarsdale NY	225
Ryan Blaum	Raleigh NC	225
Cameron Percy	Raleigh NC	225
Chesson Hadley	Raleigh NC	225
Ben Kohles	Cary NC	250
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	250
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	250

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.272
Ooh, that’s hot	0.169
I love this place	0.166
Location, location, location	0.118