I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.653
Rory Sabbatini	0.607
Marc Leishman	0.533
Sung Kang	0.501
Matt Kuchar	0.487
Scott Stallings	0.469
Hideki Matsuyama	0.438
Scott Piercy	0.433

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	3	1356.0
Scottie Scheffler	4	1317.7
Xander Schauffele	7	1239.4
Dustin Johnson	8	1213.5
Will Zalatoris	11	1120.7
Sam Burns	15	1048.2
Joaquin Niemann	21	916.3
Jordan Spieth	24	914.7

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1546.1
Patrick Cantlay	2	1401.1
Rory McIlroy	5	1262.1
Cameron Smith	6	1258.1

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Will Zalatoris	1538.1
Matt Kuchar	1405.4
Sam Burns	1204.4
Matthew NeSmith	941.1
Adam Hadwin	884.4
JJ Spaun	763.7
Jhonattan Vegas	604.8
Scottie Scheffler	593.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Charley Hoffman	-455.0
Tom Hoge	-438.0
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-432.6
Matthew Wolff	-425.5
Ryan Palmer	-366.8
Pat Perez	-364.5
Sahith Theegala	-362.2
Carlos Ortiz	-358.3

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of this week’s course, TPC Craig Ranch, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Greens in regulation
0.14	Driving distance
0.13	Shots gained around the green
0.07	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Hayden Buckley	68.73
Luke List	68.75
Scottie Scheffler	68.78
Taylor Moore	68.83
Will Zalatoris	68.84
Joseph Bramlett	68.86
Jhonattan Vegas	68.86
Mito Pereira	68.87

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jonas Blixt	70.4
Joshua Creel	70.4
Kelly Kraft	70.1
Martin Trainer	70.1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	70.1
Wesley Bryan	70.0
Shaun Norris	69.9
Stephan Jaeger	69.9

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and TPC Craig Ranch, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
John Huh	Dallas TX	31
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	31
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	31
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	31
Kelly Kraft	Dallas TX	31
Carlos Ortiz	Dallas TX	31
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	31
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	31
Max McGreevy	Dallas TX	31
Beau Hossler	Dallas TX	31
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	31
Taylor Moore	Dallas TX	31

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.289
I love this place	0.166
Ooh, that’s hot	0.161
Location, location, location	0.071