I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Brooks Koepka	0.877
Paul Casey	0.718
Jason Day	0.706
Hideki Matsuyama	0.696
Justin Rose	0.695
Dustin Johnson	0.591
Jordan Spieth	0.583
Rickie Fowler	0.578

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1549.7
Justin Thomas	2	1410.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	1402.8
Scottie Scheffler	4	1338.7
Xander Schauffele	5	1299.6
Cameron Smith	6	1265.1
Rory McIlroy	7	1263.9
Viktor Hovland	8	1178.8

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Harris English	47	698.5
Brendan Steele	67	570.0
Taylor Moore	70	564.1
Taylor Pendrith	72	557.5

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Matt Kuchar	1588.9
Davis Riley	1364.6
Will Zalatoris	1337.7
Harold Varner	1311.2
Scottie Scheffler	1089.7
Shane Lowry	1045.3
Cameron Smith	896.6
Jordan Spieth	877.4

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-811.3
Bryson DeChambeau	-764.2
Russell Henley	-665.3
Kevin Kisner	-662.1
Louis Oosthuizen	-642.8
Keith Mitchell	-563.2
Webb Simpson	-440.6
Kevin Streelman	-415.8

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Southern Hills CC course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Two events on this course since 2000 are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.10	Scrambling
0.07	Putts per GIR
0.07	Sand saves
0.05	Driving accuracy

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Abraham Ancer	72.27
Webb Simpson	72.32
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	72.32
Patrick Cantlay	72.33
Kevin Na	72.33
Shaun Norris	72.34
Seamus Power	72.35
Sungjae Im	72.35

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	73.2
Nicolai Hojgaard	73.2
Dean Burmester	73.1
Adri Arnaus	73.0
Ryan Fox	72.9
Laurie Canter	72.9
Garrick Higgo	72.9
Jimmy Walker	72.9

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event host city, Tulsa OK.

Player	Residence	Distance
Viktor Hovland	Stillwater OK	75
Matthew Wolff	Edmond, OK	100
Talor Gooch	Midwest City OK	100
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	225
Bryson DeChambeau	Dallas TX	225
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	225
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	225
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	225
Joohyung Kim	Seoul, South Korea	225
Carlos Ortiz	Dallas TX	225
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	225
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	225

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.303
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.156
Location, location, location	0.014