I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.875
Brian Harman	0.744
Tony Finau	0.613
Emiliano Grillo	0.569
Justin Rose	0.546
Jason Kokrak	0.542
Charley Hoffman	0.541
Kevin Na	0.500

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	1	1528.8
Scottie Scheffler	7	1300.5
Will Zalatoris	9	1210.7
Viktor Hovland	10	1160.2
Collin Morikawa	14	1103.1
Daniel Berger	15	1064.3
Sam Burns	16	1050.2
Jordan Spieth	18	1016.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	2	1506.8
Xander Schauffele	3	1355.2
Rory McIlroy	4	1353.3
Patrick Cantlay	5	1348.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Riley	1865.6
Will Zalatoris	1504.6
Justin Thomas	1257.8
Harold Varner	1134.4
Jordan Spieth	1031.5
Matthew NeSmith	972.5
David Lipsky	905.8
JT Poston	810.4

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-760.9
Kevin Kisner	-677.9
Daniel Berger	-591.9
Sepp Straka	-568.4
Harris English	-535.8
Kevin Streelman	-505.3
Charley Hoffman	-442.3
Patton Kizzire	-366.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Colonial Country Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained putting
0.15	Shots gained in approach
0.14	Driving accuracy
0.11	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthias Schwab	70.55
Brendon Todd	70.56
Webb Simpson	70.61
Collin Morikawa	70.63
Daniel Berger	70.64
Abraham Ancer	70.74
Brian Stuard	70.79
Sungjae Im	70.82

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ryan Brehm	72.4
Martin Trainer	72.3
Wyndham Clark	72.0
Nick Watney	71.9
Dylan Frittelli	71.9
Danny Lee	71.9
Kurt Kitayama	71.8
Patrick Rodgers	71.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Ft. Worth TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	17
Taylor Moore	Dallas TX	33
Max McGreevy	Dallas TX	33
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	33
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	33
Beau Hossler	Dallas TX	33
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	33
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	33
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	33
Carlos Ortiz	Dallas TX	33
John Huh	Dallas TX	33
Bryson DeChambeau	Dallas TX	33
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	33

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.310
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.153
Location, location, location	0.015