Jul
Perspectives on the Open Championship
I love this place!
Entrants ranked on history in the British Open. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.
| Player | History |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | 0.688 |
| Justin Rose | 0.537 |
| Brooks Koepka | 0.518 |
| Tony Finau | 0.508 |
| Rory McIlroy | 0.505 |
| Sergio Garcia | 0.479 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.464 |
| Henrik Stenson | 0.463 |
Top of the heap
The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | 1 | 1620.8 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 | 1588.0 |
| Jon Rahm | 3 | 1552.1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 4 | 1537.9 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 5 | 1452.0 |
| Justin Thomas | 6 | 1425.2 |
| Cameron Smith | 7 | 1376.9 |
| Will Zalatoris | 8 | 1320.6 |
Sorry, can’t make it
The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Berger | 15 | 1119.3 |
| Davis Riley | 35 | 866.5 |
| Brendan Steele | 45 | 778.9 |
| Adam Hadwin | 48 | 768.2 |
Ooh, that’s hot
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Upward change |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 1606.0 |
| Sahith Theegala | 1520.8 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1509.8 |
| Tony Finau | 1270.1 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1209.9 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 1130.3 |
| Keith Mitchell | 1086.8 |
| JT Poston | 1002.6 |
Brr, that’s cold
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Downward change |
|---|---|
| Keegan Bradley | -907.8 |
| Justin Thomas | -842.3 |
| Viktor Hovland | -803.8 |
| Russell Henley | -762.4 |
| Jason Kokrak | -683.3 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -666.1 |
| Mito Pereira | -618.8 |
| Brooks Koepka | -607.0 |
Certain skills required
Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical British Open course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on British Open courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.
| Stat value | Statistic |
|---|---|
| 0.23 | Shots gained in approach |
| 0.17 | Sand saves |
| 0.15 | Shots gained around the green |
| 0.09 | Driving accuracy |
Location, location, location
Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Bernd Wiesberger | 69.22 |
| Sam Horsfield | 69.45 |
| Xander Schauffele | 69.77 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 69.87 |
| Talor Gooch | 69.98 |
| Justin Thomas | 69.99 |
| Shane Lowry | 70.04 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 70.18 |
Anyplace but here
Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Garrick Higgo | 73.9 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 73.9 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 73.4 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 73.2 |
| Viktor Hovland | 72.9 |
| Brooks Koepka | 72.9 |
| Zander Lombard | 72.9 |
| Abraham Ancer | 72.8 |
Staying close to home
Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and St. Andrews, Scotland, the event location.
| Player | Residence | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Perez | Dundee, Scotland | 10 |
| Robert MacIntyre | Oban, Scotland | 100 |
| Rory McIlroy | Holywood, Northern Ireland | 175 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | Southport, England | 175 |
| Sam Horsfield | Manchester, UK | 200 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | Sheffield, England | 200 |
| Danny Willett | Sheffield, England | 200 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | Marlow, Buckinghamshire, England | 350 |
Mathematically speaking
The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.
| Statistic | Correlation to results |
|---|---|
| Top of the heap | 0.326 |
| I love this place | 0.166 |
| Ooh, that’s hot | 0.146 |
| Location, location, location | 0.012 |
