I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the 3M Open event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Tony Finau	0.299
Cameron Tringale	0.286
Brice Garnett	0.277
Charles Howell	0.275
Adam Hadwin	0.255
Adam Long	0.222
Bo Hoag	0.220
Roger Sloan	0.210

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Hideki Matsuyama	25	947.8
Sungjae Im	29	933.4
Tony Finau	30	930.5
Davis Riley	36	867.9
Cameron Tringale	41	841.7
Brendan Steele	46	779.3
Adam Hadwin	47	769.1
Maverick McNealy	53	722.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1699.0
Rory McIlroy	2	1640.1
Xander Schauffele	3	1622.1
Jon Rahm	4	1527.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Nick Hardy	1220.5
Brendan Steele	1175.0
Chesson Hadley	835.8
Davis Riley	833.9
Chez Reavie	815.8
JT Poston	775.5
Tony Finau	733.5
Mark Hubbard	718.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sungjae Im	-588.0
Tom Hoge	-549.5
Erik van Rooyen	-543.5
Lanto Griffin	-459.9
Hideki Matsuyama	-427.9
Lucas Glover	-373.2
Troy Merritt	-366.1
Cameron Champ	-333.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Shots gained off the tee
0.18	Shots gained in approach
	Driving accuracy
	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Tony Finau	68.52
Hideki Matsuyama	68.56
Brendan Steele	68.64
Austin Smotherman	68.89
Sungjae Im	69.03
Martin Laird	69.07
Tom Hoge	69.09
Matthew NeSmith	69.12

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brian Gay	72.8
Jonas Blixt	71.9
Richy Werenski	71.7
Martin Trainer	71.6
Harry Higgs	71.4
Bo Hoag	71.3
Seung-yul Noh	71.2
Kevin Tway	71.1

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Blaine MN, the event location.

Player	Residence	Distance
Tom Hoge	Fargo ND	200
Scott Gutschewski	Elkhorn NE	300
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	350
Brice Garnett	Gallatin Missouri	375
Ryan Brehm	Mount Pleasant MI	425
Robert Streb	Shawnee KS	425
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	525
Bo Hoag	Columbus Oh	625
Jason Day	Columbus Oh	625

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.328
I love this place	0.167
Ooh, that’s hot	0.148
Location, location, location	0.011