02
Jan

Sentry Tournament of Champions Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Usually in this event, it is a valid strategy to pick a guy from the southern hemisphere, on the theory that it’s early summer down there and possibly the guy is in something like mid-season form. That idea won’t work for this week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions on Maui in Hawaii: A quick check of player residences indicates that Justin Thomas of Jupiter FL has the southern-most residence in the field. Thomas won this event in 2017 and 2020, so perhaps he’s not a bad bet.

Patrick Cantlay was trending up when he played his final event of 2022, the Shriners, in the second weekend of October. He was runner-up to Tom Kim in that one. Xander Schauffele was in the top 10 both of his last two events, fourth in the World Challenge in December and ninth in the Zozo in October. Scottie Scheffler looks like a good choice based on his fit for the course. He ranks just outside the top 10 percent of U.S./ Euro players in shots gained in approach and putts per green in regulation, the two stats that correlate most strongly with success on the Plantation Course.

Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay 10.8 16
2 Xander Schauffele 17.4 WD
3 Jon Rahm 17.8 1
4 Justin Thomas 21.6 25
5 Scottie Scheffler 29.2 7
6 Will Zalatoris 29.4 11
7 Viktor Hovland 31.5 18
8 Brian Harman 32.3 16
9 Sungjae Im 32.5 13
10 Tom Kim 32.9 5
11 Jordan Spieth 33.3 13
12 Tony Finau 33.9 7
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 34.3 7
14 Seamus Power 35.9 25
15 Collin Morikawa 36.4 2
16 Aaron Wise 36.7 18
17 Max Homa 37.7 3
18 Sam Burns 42.7 32
19 Cameron Young 42.9 13
20 Adam Scott 44.0 29
21 Sahith Theegala 44.9 33
22 Russell Henley 45.2 30
23 Corey Conners 45.3 18
24 Hideki Matsuyama 49.4 21
25 Billy Horschel 49.8 30
26 Tom Hoge 52.1 3
27 Mac Hughes 54.2 21
28 KH Lee 55.2 7
29 Scott Stallings 56.2 25
30 JT Poston 72.6 21
31 JJ Spaun 77.3 5
32 Chad Ramey 58.5 38
33 Ryan Brehm 59.4 35
34 Sepp Straka 64.6 21
35 Adam Svensson 66.3 37
36 Luke List 60.8 11
37 Chez Reavie 60.8 35
Trey Mullinax late entry 28
Keegan Bradley late entry 34
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 225. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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