23
Jan

Farmers Insurance Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

REMINDER: This event starts Wednesday,Jan. 25.

Becausee it’s pretty hard to argue with 54 under par in eight competitive rounds in 2023, it’s also pretty hard to dispute the recognition of Jon Rahm as favorite in this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, just north of San Diego. And if it weren’t for the 54-under, Rahm might still be the favorite. He’s a great fit for the Torrey Pines courses and has the best record in this event of anyone on Tour who regularly plays it. Greens in regulation and driving distance are the two stats that have correlated most closely with success in this event over the past eight years; Rahm leads the tour in GIR and is in the top five percent in driving distance. And Rahm has been in the top 10 in this event in the last four years, after winning it in 2017.

Four others from the Hawley Ratings top 10 — Xander Schauffele, Taylor Montgomery, Will Zalatoris, and Justin Thomas — are in the field. All have good statistical profiles for success at Torrey Pines. Montgomery probably is the hottest of that bunch, having been fifth and 12th his last two appearances. Rookie Davis Thompson, who led for a while last week at La Quinta and who hung in with Rahm until the 71st hole, is in the field.

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm -1.0 7
2 Xander Schauffele 14.1 13
3 Will Zalatoris 21.7 74
4 Taylor Montgomery 21.8 31
5 Tony Finau 24.9 9
6 Justin Thomas 29.7 25
7 Collin Morikawa 31.7 3
8 Sungjae Im 32.9 4
9 Max Homa 33.8 1
10 Maverick McNealy 39.1 31
11 Jason Day 40.6 7
12 Adam Hadwin 43.1 44
13 Justin Rose 43.4 18
14 Si Woo Kim 44.2 25
15 Ben Griffin 44.4 31
16 Alex Smalley 46.8 37
17 Keegan Bradley 46.9 2
18 Sahith Theegala 47.2 4
19 JJ Spaun 47.7 112
20 Hideki Matsuyama 48.0 9
21 Ben Taylor 50.5 128
22 Hayden Buckley 50.9 87
23 Davis Riley 52.6 99
24 Taylor Pendrith 53.2 60
25 Brendan Steele 53.6 20
26 Scott Stallings 53.6 74
27 Wyndham Clark 53.8 37
28 Davis Thompson 53.9 69
29 Patrick Rodgers 54.8 87
30 Robby Shelton 55.2 67
31 Patton Kizzire 55.7 74
32 Ryan Palmer 56.1 62
33 Cameron Davis 56.1 151
34 Sebastian Munoz 56.3 99
35 Taylor Moore 56.3 11
36 Gary Woodland 56.7 62
37 Kurt Kitayama 56.9 133
38 Thomas Detry 57.0 37
39 Harris English 57.4 133
40 Rickie Fowler 57.5 11
41 Trey Mullinax 57.7 31
42 Matthew NeSmith 57.9 74
43 Emiliano Grillo 58.6 44
44 Luke List 58.6 25
45 Stephan Jaeger 59.0 53
46 Martin Laird 59.1 99
47 Jhonattan Vegas 59.4 25
48 SH Kim 59.6 20
49 Adam Svensson 59.9 87
50 Callum Tarren 60.0 25
51 Beau Hossler 60.3 87
52 Will Gordon 60.8 112
53 Kevin Streelman 61.0 60
54 Aaron Rai 61.1 52
55 Nick Hardy 61.2 44
56 Lanto Griffin 61.7 37
57 Harry Higgs 61.9 44
58 Lee Hodges 62.5 87
59 Dean Burmester 63.1 37
60 Danny Lee 63.5 99
61 Cameron Champ 63.6 53
62 Cole Hammer 63.8 99
63 Byeong Hun An 64.0 62
64 Scott Piercy 64.6 31
65 Harrison Endycott 64.7 128
66 Justin Lower 64.9 74
67 Harry Hall 65.2 87
68 Sam Ryder 65.3 4
69 Kevin Yu 65.3 44
70 Aaron Baddeley 65.5 74
71 Tyson Alexander 65.6 99
72 Adam Schenk 65.7 20
73 John Huh 65.7 DNP
74 Michael Thompson 66.0 37
75 Dylan Frittelli 66.1 37
76 Garrick Higgo 66.3 53
77 Adam Long 66.5 73
78 Carl Yuan 66.7 87
79 Zac Blair 66.8 122
80 Doug Ghim 67.0 74
81 Charley Hoffman 67.3 112
82 Nicolas Echavarria 67.6 87
83 Andrew Novak 67.8 69
84 Henrik Norlander 68.0 74
85 Matthias Schmid 68.0 122
86 Ryan Armour 68.0 133
87 Austin Eckroat 68.2 87
88 Eric Cole 68.5 87
89 Cameron Percy 68.6 99
90 David Lingmerth 68.6 153
91 James Hahn 69.0 112
92 Robert Streb 69.1 74
93 Joseph Bramlett 69.2 13
94 Doc Redman 69.3 128
95 Keita Nakajima 69.6 99
96 Erik Barnes 69.8 13
97 Peter Malnati 69.9 20
98 Brice Garnett 70.2 139
99 Austin Smotherman 70.4 74
100 Tyler Duncan 70.5 99
101 Paul Haley 70.7 62
102 Ben Martin 71.0 112
103 Brian Stuard 71.0 112
104 Austin Cook 71.0 53
105 Sean O’Hair 71.1 74
106 Satoshi Kodaira 71.2 53
107 Rory Sabbatini 71.2 144
108 William McGirt 71.4 122
109 Jimmy Walker 71.6 13
110 Hank Lebioda 71.7 87
111 Justin Suh 71.9 20
112 Nick Watney 71.9 122
113 Dylan Wu 72.3 87
114 Seung-yul Noh 72.3 44
115 Max McGreevy 72.4 DNP
116 Estanislao Goya 72.4 53
117 Kevin Tway 72.9 18
118 JB Holmes 72.9 144
119 MJ Daffue 73.0 147
120 Kelly Kraft 73.3 153
121 Zecheng Dou 73.5 62
122 Michael Gligic 73.6 133
123 Richy Werenski 73.9 133
124 Jonathan Byrd 74.3 74
125 Vaughn Taylor 74.5 DNP
126 Scott Brown 74.9 72
127 Michael Kim 75.0 44
128 Bill Haas 75.0 112
129 Sung Kang 75.1 DNP
130 Kyle Westmoreland 75.2 74
131 Kyle Stanley 75.3 147
132 Kevin Chappell 75.6 DNP
133 Martin Trainer 75.6 112
134 Camilo Villegas 75.7 139
135 Grayson Murray 75.8 DNP
136 Vincent Norman 75.8 44
137 Jim Herman 75.9 139
138 Tommy Gainey 76.2 DNP
139 Philip Knowles 76.3 139
140 Ryan Brehm 76.5 147
141 Scott Harrington 76.6 69
142 Jason Dufner 76.9 128
143 Brent Grant 77.0 25
144 Taiga Semikawa 77.2 67
145 Samuel Stevens 77.3 13
146 Carson Young 77.7 128
147 Trevor Werbylo 77.9 53
148 Kevin Roy 77.9 112
149 Trevor Cone 77.9 99
150 Brandon Matthews 78.0 99
151 Patrick Welch 78.1 122
152 Augusto Nunez 78.1 31
153 Michael Block 78.5 99
154 Michael Herrera 78.5 99
155 Joey Vrzich 78.5 122
156 Greg Chalmers 78.6 DNP
157 Anders Albertson 78.9 139
158 Ben Crane 78.9 151
159 Cody Gribble 78.9 112
160 Arjun Atwal 79.2 153
Caleb Surratt late entry 134
Harrison Kingsley late entry 146
Robert Garrigus late entry 149
Spencer Levin late entry 156
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 124. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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