I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jon Rahm	0.878
Ryan Palmer	0.748
Tony Finau	0.685
Luke List	0.660
Jason Day	0.620
Justin Rose	0.537
Hideki Matsuyama	0.496
Sungjae Im	0.451

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	3	1798.6
Xander Schauffele	4	1641.1
Taylor Montgomery	8	1416.9
Will Zalatoris	9	1394.0
Justin Thomas	10	1379.2
Sungjae Im	14	1239.2
Collin Morikawa	16	1198.6
Tony Finau	17	1193.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1875.2
Rory McIlroy	2	1803.1
Scottie Scheffler	5	1604.5
Dustin Johnson	6	1543.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Ben Taylor	1225.8
Alex Smalley	1163.2
Hayden Buckley	904.5
JJ Spaun	898.5
Patton Kizzire	823.3
Robby Shelton	703.9
Wyndham Clark	658.0
Patrick Rodgers	650.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-917.0
Justin Thomas	-663.9
Cameron Davis	-568.2
Taylor Moore	-504.5
Hideki Matsuyama	-477.0
Lanto Griffin	-475.7
Scott Stallings	-471.2
Lee Hodges	-452.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the Torrey Pines courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Greens in regulation
0.15	Driving distance
0.13	Putts per GIR
0.01	Shots gained in approach

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Patrick Welch	71.37
Dean Burmester	71.96
Kevin Yu	72.11
Will Zalatoris	72.23
Jon Rahm	72.26
Taylor Montgomery	72.27
Will Gordon	72.32
Xander Schauffele	72.36

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Anders Albertson	74.7
Greg Chalmers	74.2
Ryan Brehm	73.9
Scott Brown	73.9
Brian Stuard	73.9
Arjun Atwal	73.9
Kyle Stanley	73.8
Max McGreevy	73.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and La Jolla CA, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Brendan Steele	Irvine Ca	75
Sahith Theegala	Chino Hills CA	75
JJ Spaun	San Dimas CA	100
Justin Suh	Los Angeles Ca	100
Kurt Kitayama	Henderson Nevada	250
Maverick McNealy	Las Vegas NV	250
Nick Watney	Las Vegas NV	250
Scott Piercy	Las Vegas NV	250
Collin Morikawa	Las Vegas NV	250
Harry Hall	Las Vegas NV	250
Taylor Montgomery	Las Vegas NV	250
Joseph Bramlett	Las Vegas NV	250
Xander Schauffele	Las Vegas NV	250
Doug Ghim	Las Vegas NV	250
Charley Hoffman	Las Vegas NV	250

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.368
I love this place	0.164
Ooh, that’s hot	0.138
Location, location, location	0.022