30
Jan

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Mostly by virtue of being the highest-ranked player in the field, Matthew Fitzpatrick (15th in the current Hawley Ratings) shows up first in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am power ratings. Fitzpatrick’s only January appearance was at the Champions, where he finished seventh. He was sixth in this event last year, easily the best result of his three visits to the peninsula.

Viktor Hovland, also with only the Champions (where he made the top 20) on his 2023 resume, is in this event for the second time after making the cut in 2020. Jordan Spieth offers contrasts as the third-ranked choice. Compared to the rest of the field, he has the best record in this event over the last eight years, including the 2017 win, a third last year, and two other top-10s and a top 20 since 2015. The bad news on Spieth is that he hasn’t been playing well. He missed the cut at the Sony, was in the middle of the pack at the Champions, and was far back at the World Challenge and CJ Cup in late 2022.

Course-fit statistics are not very meaningful in this event that is played over three courses and thus produces a very vanilla, blended set of stats. The stat that is most highly correlated with success on the three courses is putts per GIR, but the mathematical strength is by far the lowest of any leading stat on the PGA Tour.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Matthew Fitzpatrick 28.1 105
2 Viktor Hovland 31.5 13
3 Jordan Spieth 32.4 63
4 Joel Dahmen 38.5 41
5 Maverick McNealy 39.2 WD
6 Tom Hoge 39.7 48
7 Seamus Power 42.1 15
8 Justin Rose 44.0 1
9 Ben Griffin 45.8 95
10 Andrew Putnam 45.8 122
11 Keith Mitchell 48.1 4
12 Matt Kuchar 48.8 95
13 Alex Smalley 51.1 65
14 Scott Stallings 53.1 15
15 Denny McCarthy 53.3 4
16 Taylor Moore 53.4 15
17 Kevin Kisner 54.3 34
18 SH Kim 54.4 41
19 Taylor Pendrith 55.0 7
20 Davis Riley 55.2 105
21 Davis Thompson 55.7 DNP
22 Robby Shelton 56.1 20
23 Callum Tarren 56.4 65
24 David Lipsky 56.4 115
25 Troy Merritt 56.4 131
26 Erik van Rooyen 56.6 105
27 Brendon Todd 56.7 2
28 Thomas Detry 57.0 37
29 Ben Taylor 57.1 105
30 Nick Taylor 57.3 20
31 Trey Mullinax 57.8 WD
32 Kevin Streelman 57.9 63
33 Kurt Kitayama 59.0 29
34 Matthew NeSmith 59.0 55
35 Russell Knox 59.1 41
36 Beau Hossler 60.1 11
37 Ryan Palmer 60.2 83
38 Lanto Griffin 61.0 58
39 Erik Barnes 61.1 105
40 Webb Simpson 61.3 131
41 Nick Hardy 61.7 41
42 Will Gordon 61.9 WD
43 Dean Burmester 62.4 41
44 Harry Higgs 62.6 48
45 Scott Piercy 63.0 122
46 Adam Schenk 63.1 37
47 Greyson Sigg 63.4 55
48 Nate Lashley 64.0 WD
49 Lucas Glover 64.1 83
50 Byeong Hun An 64.3 37
51 Dylan Frittelli 64.3 WD
52 Kevin Yu 64.5 7
53 Danny Willett 65.0 41
54 Justin Lower 65.3 105
55 Mark Hubbard 65.4 20
56 Garrick Higgo 65.6 20
57 Harrison Endycott 65.9 122
58 Aaron Baddeley 66.1 37
59 Adam Long 66.4 48
60 Harry Hall 66.4 34
61 Jimmy Walker 66.8 146
62 Peter Malnati 67.0 4
63 Brandon Wu 67.0 2
64 Joseph Bramlett 67.2 7
65 Doug Ghim 67.4 DNP
66 Charley Hoffman 67.5 48
67 Justin Suh 67.7 DNP
68 Matthias Schmid 67.8 140
69 Zac Blair 68.0 115
70 Chesson Hadley 68.1 122
71 Nicolas Echavarria 68.2 137
72 Matthias Schwab 68.2 122
73 Ryan Armour 68.3 58
74 Carl Yuan 68.5 122
75 David Lingmerth 68.5 58
76 Chris Stroud 68.6 95
77 Henrik Norlander 68.7 95
78 James Hahn 68.9 105
79 Tyson Alexander 69.0 48
80 Cameron Percy 69.0 WD
81 Doc Redman 69.2 41
82 Austin Eckroat 69.4 105
83 Andrew Novak 69.5 20
84 Vaughn Taylor 69.6 DNP
85 Eric Cole 69.8 15
86 Samuel Stevens 69.8 34
87 Brice Garnett 69.9 142
88 Brian Stuard 70.1 70
89 Luke Donald 70.2 83
90 Kevin Tway 70.4 83
91 Sean O’Hair 70.5 65
92 Kelly Kraft 70.6 115
93 Nick Watney 70.8 83
94 Paul Haley 70.8 58
95 Austin Smotherman 70.8 146
96 Seung-yul Noh 70.8 65
97 Satoshi Kodaira 70.9 29
98 Ben Martin 70.9 13
99 Ryan Moore 70.9 7
100 Hank Lebioda 71.5 15
101 Estanislao Goya 71.7 55
102 Austin Cook 71.7 115
103 Max McGreevy 71.8 83
104 William McGirt 72.0 135
105 Rory Sabbatini 72.0 135
106 Marcel Siem 72.2 83
107 Dylan Wu 72.2 29
108 Chad Ramey 72.3 70
109 Brent Grant 73.2 20
110 Brian Gay 73.2 WD
111 Fabian Gomez 73.2 65
112 Zecheng Dou 73.3 115
113 Jonathan Byrd 73.3 95
114 Michael Gligic 73.3 83
115 MJ Daffue 73.3 48
116 Richy Werenski 73.6 20
117 Michael Kim 73.7 11
118 Ted Potter 74.1 122
119 Kevin Chappell 74.1 83
120 Andrew Landry 74.2 WD
121 Augusto Nunez 74.3 48
122 Cody Gribble 74.4 70
123 Vincent Norman 74.5 131
124 Bill Haas 74.5 WD
125 Bo Van Pelt 74.7 122
126 Sung Kang 74.7 29
127 Martin Trainer 75.1 20
128 Scott Brown 75.2 83
129 Grayson Murray 75.2 140
130 Camilo Villegas 75.3 105
131 Robert Garrigus 75.4 115
132 JB Holmes 75.7 131
133 Kyle Stanley 75.7 WD
134 Kyle Westmoreland 75.8 29
135 Ryan Brehm 76.0 148
136 Jonas Blixt 76.1 20
137 Tommy Gainey 76.2 148
138 Scott Harrington 76.3 122
139 Philip Knowles 76.3 DNP
140 Wesley Bryan 76.3 95
141 Jason Dufner 76.5 WD
142 Trevor Werbylo 76.6 58
143 David Hearn 77.1 DNP
144 Greg Chalmers 77.2 70
145 Carson Young 77.3 WD
146 Ricky Barnes 77.4 DNP
147 John Pak 77.4 115
148 Kevin Roy 77.5 83
149 Brandon Matthews 77.7 137
150 Johnson Wagner 77.7 DNP
151 Trevor Cone 77.7 83
152 Arjun Atwal 78.0 95
153 Ben Crane 78.0 95
154 Anders Albertson 78.2 105
155 Geoff Ogilvy 78.2 74
156 Benjamin Silverman 78.2 95
157 DJ Trahan 78.3 DNP
158 JJ Henry 78.3 DNP
159 Sangmoon Bae 78.4 DNP
160 DA Points 78.4 137
161 Tom Johnson 78.5 142
162 RJ Manke 78.5 95
163 Paul O’Hara 78.5 75
164 Charles Porter 78.5 142
165 Garett Reband 78.5 142
166 Mark Hensby 78.5 DNP
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 76. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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