06
Feb

Waste Management Phoenix Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The PGA Tour “elevated” event concept makes its first mainland appearance this week, with Jon Rahm, beast of the season so far, favored at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The meaning of “elevated” is that the top players have an increased responsibility to play such events, and there is a significantly increased purse. Of the top 23 players on the Tour’s Player Impact Program (PIP) list, all but Adam Scott, Tiger Woods, and Will Zalatoris are in the field of this $20 million event. Rahm has been dominating in 2023, except that he surprisingly shot two-over in the final round of the Farmers on Jan. 28 to finish seventh. Before that, he won the Champions and American Express in bck-to-back appearances, shooting a combined 54-under-par in those events.

Other than three LIV players and Will Zalatoris, who was trying to recover from a back injury as 2022 ended, the remainder of the Hawley Ratings top 20 all are in the Phoenix field.

An analysis of PGA Tour statistical tables and results in this event says putts per GIR is the only stat that correlates with success in this event to any meaningful extent. Tom Kim and Scottie Scheffler are the players whose statistical profiles most closely align with success in the event.

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm

Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm 0.8 3
2 Patrick Cantlay 5.2 67
3 Rory McIlroy 5.8 32
4 Scottie Scheffler 9.4 1
5 Xander Schauffele 10.8 10
6 Taylor Montgomery 22.4 96
7 Collin Morikawa 24.6 88
8 Tony Finau 25.3 14
9 Justin Thomas 25.4 4
10 Sungjae Im 26.2 6
11 Max Homa 26.6 39
12 Tom Kim 28.5 50
13 Viktor Hovland 30.9 42
14 Matthew Fitzpatrick 33.6 29
15 Cameron Young 34.1 64
16 Hideki Matsuyama 36.3 29
17 Sam Burns 36.7 6
18 Tyrrell Hatton 37.7 6
19 Alex Noren 39.6 67
20 Joel Dahmen 40.8 50
21 Jordan Spieth 41.4 6
22 Brian Harman 41.4 42
23 Shane Lowry 41.6 125
24 Adam Hadwin 42.0 10
25 Keegan Bradley 42.0 20
26 Si Woo Kim 42.1 23
27 Corey Conners 42.1 50
28 Chris Kirk 42.1 67
29 Rickie Fowler 42.5 10
30 Keith Mitchell 42.5 42
31 Seamus Power 42.6 20
32 Aaron Wise 42.7 67
33 Sahith Theegala 42.9 39
34 Russell Henley 43.4 88
35 Jason Day 44.8 5
36 Maverick McNealy 44.9 WD
37 Tom Hoge 46.1 88
38 JT Poston 46.5 103
39 Andrew Putnam 47.0 67
40 Tommy Fleetwood 47.0 67
41 Billy Horschel 47.2 32
42 Ben Griffin 48.3 DNP
43 Taylor Pendrith 48.4 57
44 Taylor Moore 48.7 14
45 Matt Kuchar 49.0 32
46 Denny McCarthy 49.3 103
47 KH Lee 49.4 42
48 Lucas Herbert 50.2 50
49 Brendan Steele 50.4 80
50 Brendon Todd 50.6 103
51 JJ Spaun 51.1 103
52 Scott Stallings 52.4 23
53 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 52.5 117
54 Kevin Kisner 53.5 123
55 Gary Woodland 53.8 42
56 Wyndham Clark 54.1 10
57 Mac Hughes 55.1 88
58 Davis Thompson 55.4 103
59 Webb Simpson 55.7 57
60 Beau Hossler 56.3 14
61 Thomas Detry 56.5 DNP
62 Davis Riley 56.5 103
63 Hayden Buckley 56.8 29
64 Kevin Yu 57.0 DNP
65 Erik van Rooyen 57.1 50
66 Patrick Rodgers 57.2 14
67 Jhonattan Vegas 57.9 23
68 Martin Laird 58.1 80
69 Emiliano Grillo 58.6 112
70 Callum Tarren 58.8 112
71 Nick Taylor 58.8 2
72 Trey Mullinax 59.0 61
73 Ryan Palmer 59.1 42
74 David Lipsky 59.2 67
75 Matthew NeSmith 59.5 96
76 Luke List 59.6 67
77 Patton Kizzire 59.9 103
78 Harris English 60.1 125
79 Russell Knox 60.3 88
80 Ben Taylor 60.4 DNP
81 Adam Svensson 60.6 103
82 Kurt Kitayama 60.6 23
83 Troy Merritt 60.9 80
84 Stephan Jaeger 61.0 88
85 Peter Malnati 61.0 96
86 Sam Ryder 61.3 20
87 Francesco Molinari 61.3 128
88 Garrick Higgo 61.7 67
89 Adam Schenk 61.8 23
90 Danny Lee 61.8 57
91 Brandon Wu 61.8 50
92 Lanto Griffin 62.1 DNP
93 Nick Hardy 62.2 DNP
94 Stewart Cink 62.4 65
95 Kevin Streelman 62.6 96
96 Lee Hodges 62.7 80
97 Aaron Rai 62.9 42
98 Mark Hubbard 62.9 117
99 Chez Reavie 63.1 80
100 Scott Piercy 63.2 WD
101 Nate Lashley 63.8 61
102 Greyson Sigg 64.0 57
103 Dylan Frittelli 64.5 14
104 Matt Wallace 64.6 80
105 Will Gordon 64.6 DNP
106 John Huh 64.8 DNP
107 Lucas Glover 65.1 39
108 Adam Long 65.1 42
109 Cameron Champ 65.3 130
110 Michael Thompson 65.4 96
111 Ryan Moore 65.5 67
112 Justin Lower 65.5 50
113 Charley Hoffman 67.1 14
114 Doug Ghim 67.2 67
115 Justin Suh 67.3 DNP
116 Zach Johnson 67.3 32
117 James Hahn 67.6 32
118 Chesson Hadley 68.0 23
119 Doc Redman 68.0 88
120 Jimmy Walker 68.2 129
121 Matthias Schwab 68.2 88
122 Tyson Alexander 68.5 DNP
123 Robert Streb 69.0 96
124 Tyler Duncan 69.8 67
125 Zac Blair 70.0 DNP
126 Kevin Tway 70.3 32
127 Austin Smotherman 70.8 112
128 Richy Werenski 71.4 67
129 Rory Sabbatini 71.5 103
130 Max McGreevy 71.8 112
131 Kramer Hickok 72.1 80
132 Chad Ramey 72.2 112
133 Kelly Kraft 72.8 63
134 Nick Watney 73.2 117
135 Brian Gay 73.6 117
136 Andrew Landry 74.1 125
137 Jim Herman 75.3 66
138 Kyle Stanley 75.8 DNP
139 Ryan Brehm 75.9 130
140 JB Holmes 76.1 117
141 Jason Dufner 76.3 32
142 Ricky Barnes 77.3 80
143 Michael Hopper 78.5 130
Dalton Ward late entry 102
Brett White late entry 122
Andre Metzger late entry 124
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 145. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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