20
Feb

Honda Classic Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Question: What happens after back-to-back $20 million events in the western U.S. are followed by an $8.4 million event on the opposite coast? Answer: The top players take the slow route to Florida. And that means that this week, Sungjae Im, ranked 11th (and the only player from the Hawley Ratings top 25) tops the field in the Honda Classic. Like most of the rest, Im is capable of having a bad week, with last week’s 56th-place finish in the Genesis and a missed cut in the Sony being examples. Otherwise he is a paragon of consistency, with 12 finishes in the top 20 over his last 16 appearances. Eight of those were top-10s. And he won the Honda in 2020.

Veterans Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, and Denny McCarthy have mixed some solid recent results with the occasional collapse. Sam Ryder comes in with three straight top-20s, including in both of those $20 million events. Peter Malnati is almost as good, with three of the last four in the top 20.

The last eight years of statistics show a correlation between driving distance and sand saves with success in this event. Players whose statistical profiles align with those stats include, in order, Min Woo Lee, Padraig Harrington, and Byeong Hun An.

Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Sungjae Im 13.2 42
2 Shane Lowry 35.1 5
3 Matt Kuchar 39.1 102
4 Denny McCarthy 42.3 102
5 Chris Kirk 42.6 1
6 Aaron Wise 45.2 29
7 Billy Horschel 46.5 42
8 Sam Ryder 46.6 DNP
9 Alex Noren 47.0 DNP
10 Ben Griffin 48.7 21
11 JT Poston 52.2 63
12 Jhonattan Vegas 52.2 21
13 Sepp Straka 52.8 5
14 Taylor Pendrith 53.0 42
15 SH Kim 54.2 63
16 Peter Malnati 54.7 81
17 Hayden Buckley 54.9 122
18 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55.1 42
19 Thomas Detry 55.4 WD
20 Robby Shelton 56.0 21
21 Harris English 56.1 102
22 Adam Svensson 56.5 49
23 Cameron Davis 56.7 81
24 Adam Schenk 57.0 42
25 Erik van Rooyen 57.0 141
26 Min Woo Lee 57.2 26
27 Padraig Harrington 57.3 60
28 Davis Riley 57.6 29
29 Patrick Rodgers 57.9 DNP
30 Ryan Palmer 58.8 116
31 Lee Hodges 58.8 14
32 Dylan Frittelli 59.4 29
33 Aaron Rai 59.6 116
34 Byeong Hun An 60.3 21
35 Joseph Bramlett 60.9 55
36 Danny Willett 61.1 29
37 Webb Simpson 61.8 74
38 Stephan Jaeger 62.1 14
39 Russell Knox 62.2 127
40 Adrian Meronk 62.2 14
41 Garrick Higgo 62.4 29
42 Brandon Wu 62.5 14
43 David Lipsky 62.7 DNP
44 Ben Taylor 63.0 5
45 Lanto Griffin 63.1 DNP
46 Nick Hardy 63.1 102
47 Mark Hubbard 63.4 42
48 Charley Hoffman 63.8 81
49 Callum Tarren 64.3 125
50 Will Gordon 64.6 42
51 Harry Hall 64.7 74
52 Adam Long 64.9 102
53 Harry Higgs 65.2 135
54 Zach Johnson 65.2 12
55 Eric Cole 65.3 2
56 Justin Suh 65.4 5
57 Andrew Novak 65.6 29
58 Aaron Baddeley 65.6 81
59 Kevin Tway 65.7 63
60 Matt Wallace 65.7 29
61 Erik Barnes 66.4 49
62 Chesson Hadley 66.6 29
63 Danny Lee 66.7 DNP
64 Greyson Sigg 66.8 90
65 Matthias Schwab 66.9 60
66 Harrison Endycott 67.0 26
67 Ryan Moore 67.7 90
68 Samuel Stevens 67.8 90
69 Tyler Duncan 68.0 3
70 Jimmy Walker 68.1 49
71 Ryan Armour 68.5 63
72 Brent Grant 68.6 WD
73 Tyson Alexander 68.7 78
74 Ben Martin 68.8 5
75 Matthias Schmid 69.0 90
76 Nicolas Echavarria 69.1 131
77 Hank Lebioda 69.2 81
78 Luke Donald 69.4 125
79 Robert Streb 69.5 116
80 Michael Kim 69.7 102
81 Brian Stuard 69.7 122
82 Chris Stroud 69.8 102
83 Austin Eckroat 69.9 90
84 Satoshi Kodaira 69.9 90
85 Brice Garnett 70.0 55
86 Doc Redman 70.0 90
87 David Lingmerth 70.2 10
88 Sean O’Hair 70.2 102
89 Carl Yuan 70.3 81
90 Kramer Hickok 70.4 14
91 Dylan Wu 70.5 10
92 Zac Blair 70.5 49
93 Cameron Percy 70.8 12
94 William McGirt 70.8 29
95 Rory Sabbatini 71.2 127
96 Henrik Norlander 71.3 116
97 Austin Smotherman 71.8 DNP
98 Estanislao Goya 71.8 55
99 Austin Cook 71.9 102
100 Paul Haley 71.9 102
101 Richy Werenski 72.2 131
102 Max McGreevy 72.7 127
103 Kelly Kraft 72.7 55
104 Martin Trainer 72.8 90
105 Jason Dufner 73.0 74
106 Chad Ramey 73.0 81
107 MJ Daffue 73.5 21
108 Augusto Nunez 73.5 71
109 Michael Gligic 73.6 90
110 Kyle Westmoreland 73.7 135
111 Seung-yul Noh 73.7 139
112 Zecheng Dou 73.8 127
113 Vaughn Taylor 74.0 DNP
114 Fabian Gomez 74.1 81
115 Sung Kang 74.2 141
116 Akshay Bhatia 74.2 49
117 Vincent Norrman 74.3 63
118 Brian Gay 74.3 116
119 Camilo Villegas 74.3 135
120 Jonathan Byrd 74.4 90
121 Scott Brown 74.4 135
122 Andrew Landry 74.6 122
123 Jim Herman 74.8 14
124 Bill Haas 75.2 71
125 Kevin Chappell 75.4 29
126 Wesley Bryan 75.7 DNP
127 Andrew Kozan 75.9 139
128 Grayson Murray 75.9 102
129 Tommy Gainey 76.3 DNP
130 Kyle Stanley 76.4 60
131 Cody Gribble 76.4 79
132 Trevor Werbylo 76.5 49
133 Scott Harrington 76.5 26
134 Ryan Brehm 76.7 14
135 Pierceson Coody 76.8 63
136 Greg Chalmers 77.3 116
137 Carson Young 77.6 29
138 JB Holmes 77.7 71
139 Kevin Roy 77.9 29
140 Brandon Matthews 77.9 55
141 Arjun Atwal 78.0 90
142 Trevor Cone 78.0 74
143 Ben Crane 78.0 90
144 Anders Albertson 78.4 63
145 Marcus Byrd 78.5 131
146 Tyler Collet 78.5 102
Ryan Gerard late entry 4
Brett Drewitt late entry 33
Trace Crowe late entry 68
Geoff Ogilvy late entry 80
Benjamin Silverman late entry 89
Jonas Blixt late entry 104
Curtis Thompson late entry 115
Parker Coody late entry 131
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The accuracy number for these picks is 55. The average is 164. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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