I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Shane Lowry	0.499
Jhonattan Vegas	0.491
Billy Horschel	0.465
Sepp Straka	0.463
Sam Ryder	0.443
Chris Kirk	0.414
Mark Hubbard	0.410
Alex Noren	0.402

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Sungjae Im	11	1371.3
Shane Lowry	27	1099.2
Aaron Wise	33	987.1
Matt Kuchar	41	888.3
Billy Horschel	44	868.7
Alex Noren	50	828.3
Denny McCarthy	51	816.6
Chris Kirk	54	793.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	2080.4
Patrick Cantlay	2	1946.4
Scottie Scheffler	3	1812.6
Rory McIlroy	4	1802.7

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Sam Ryder	1462.6
Peter Malnati	1236.8
Sungjae Im	970.5
Matt Kuchar	892.9
Joseph Bramlett	747.2
Chris Kirk	680.0
Kevin Tway	631.9
Denny McCarthy	558.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Aaron Wise	-880.3
Billy Horschel	-664.4
Davis Riley	-656.1
Alex Noren	-594.6
Cameron Davis	-551.7
Shane Lowry	-536.5
Sepp Straka	-523.6
David Lipsky	-497.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the PGA National course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.07	Driving distance
0.04	Sand saves
0.02	Scrambling
0.02	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	71.35
Padraig Harrington	71.36
Thomas Detry	71.37
Byeong Hun An	71.37
Taylor Pendrith	71.46
Will Gordon	71.47
Shane Lowry	71.48
Cameron Davis	71.49

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scott Brown	71.9
Brian Stuard	71.9
Adrian Meronk	71.8
Sean O’Hair	71.8
Aaron Baddeley	71.8
David Lingmerth	71.8
Jim Herman	71.8
Satoshi Kodaira	71.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Palm Beach Gardens FL, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Patrick Rodgers	Palm Beach Gardens FL	0
Brandon Matthews	Palm Beach Gardens FL	0
Denny McCarthy	Jupiter FL	6
Adam Long	Jupiter FL	6
Aaron Wise	Jupiter FL	6
Shane Lowry	Jupiter FL	6
Kevin Tway	Jupiter FL	7
Eric Cole	Delray Beach FL	28

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.366
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.033