I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.883
Matthew Fitzpatrick	0.779
Tyrrell Hatton	0.720
Chris Kirk	0.653
Sungjae Im	0.634
Tommy Fleetwood	0.625
Keegan Bradley	0.618
Hideki Matsuyama	0.512

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	2083.4
Patrick Cantlay	2	1956.8
Scottie Scheffler	3	1821.1
Rory McIlroy	4	1813.6
Xander Schauffele	5	1725.6
Justin Thomas	6	1562.8
Will Zalatoris	7	1512.7
Max Homa	10	1410.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	8	1500.1
Cameron Smith	9	1458.4
Daniel Berger	19	1180.8
Joaquin Niemann	20	1179.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Jon Rahm	2121.5
Jason Day	2031.1
Chris Kirk	1499.3
Sam Ryder	1460.2
Max Homa	1425.3
Rickie Fowler	1302.0
Collin Morikawa	1263.9
Scottie Scheffler	1188.9

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Russell Henley	-711.9
Brian Harman	-676.2
Aaron Wise	-663.1
Andrew Putnam	-631.4
Patrick Cantlay	-614.3
Cameron Davis	-611.7
Billy Horschel	-611.5
Alex Noren	-597.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Bay Hill course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.31	Greens in regulation
0.14	Driving distance
0.07	Shots gained putting
0.07	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Padraig Harrington	72.94
Tom Kim	73.00
Min Woo Lee	73.03
Jon Rahm	73.09
Adrian Meronk	73.10
Scottie Scheffler	73.32
Will Gordon	73.41
Rory McIlroy	73.43

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
David Lingmerth	75.0
Lucas Herbert	74.9
Scott Piercy	74.8
Peter Malnati	74.7
Luke Donald	74.7
Troy Merritt	74.7
Eric Cole	74.6
Zach Johnson	74.6

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Orlando FL, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Byeong Hun An	Orlando FL	29
Emiliano Grillo	Bradenton FL	75
Taylor Pendrith	Palm Beach Gardens FL	100
Adam Svensson	Palm Beach Gardens FL	100
David Lingmerth	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	125
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	125
Tyson Alexander	Jacksonville Beach FL	125
Sam Ryder	Atlantic Beach FL	125

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.364
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.127
Location, location, location	0.033