Mar
A look at the Players Championship
I love this place!
Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.
Player | History |
---|---|
Keegan Bradley | 0.692 |
Justin Thomas | 0.665 |
Shane Lowry | 0.533 |
Tommy Fleetwood | 0.511 |
Adam Scott | 0.490 |
Adam Hadwin | 0.479 |
Jason Day | 0.473 |
Brian Harman | 0.458 |
Top of the heap
The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.
Player | Rank | Rating |
---|---|---|
Patrick Cantlay | 1 | 2078.4 |
Jon Rahm | 2 | 2031.3 |
Rory McIlroy | 3 | 1950.0 |
Scottie Scheffler | 4 | 1922.8 |
Xander Schauffele | 5 | 1694.3 |
Justin Thomas | 6 | 1587.0 |
Max Homa | 8 | 1469.5 |
Will Zalatoris | 10 | 1463.2 |
Sorry, can’t make it
The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.
Player | Rank | Rating |
---|---|---|
Dustin Johnson | 7 | 1505.3 |
Cameron Smith | 9 | 1464.1 |
Joaquin Niemann | 21 | 1183.5 |
Daniel Berger | 22 | 1180.4 |
Ooh, that’s hot
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
Player | Upward change |
---|---|
Jon Rahm | 2173.6 |
Jason Day | 1929.9 |
Chris Kirk | 1498.9 |
Sam Ryder | 1473.4 |
Max Homa | 1366.3 |
Collin Morikawa | 1312.6 |
Rickie Fowler | 1283.7 |
Scottie Scheffler | 1087.1 |
Brr, that’s cold
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
Player | Downward change |
---|---|
Patrick Cantlay | -736.0 |
Jordan Spieth | -721.3 |
Davis Riley | -688.4 |
Russell Henley | -688.0 |
Brian Harman | -640.7 |
Andrew Putnam | -640.6 |
Aaron Wise | -627.0 |
Cameron Davis | -591.2 |
Certain skills required
Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC at Sawgrass course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.
Stat value | Statistic |
---|---|
0.10 | Shots gained in approach |
0.10 | Shots gained putting |
0.10 | Driving distance |
0.07 | Greens in regulation |
Location, location, location
Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
Course fit | Player |
---|---|
Min Woo Lee | 71.71 |
Rory McIlroy | 71.89 |
Will Zalatoris | 72.00 |
Jon Rahm | 72.00 |
Tom Kim | 72.02 |
Scottie Scheffler | 72.06 |
Xander Schauffele | 72.11 |
Tony Finau | 72.14 |
Anyplace but here
Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
Course fit | Player |
---|---|
David Lingmerth | 73.6 |
Max McGreevy | 73.5 |
Harrison Endycott | 73.3 |
Zecheng Dou | 73.3 |
Ryan Fox | 73.3 |
Michael Kim | 73.2 |
Harry Higgs | 73.2 |
Kelly Kraft | 73.2 |
Staying close to home
Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Ponte Vedra Beach FL, the event venue.
Player | Residence | Distance |
---|---|---|
Tyson Alexander | Jacksonville Beach FL | 6 |
David Lingmerth | Ponte Vedra Beach FL | 8 |
Lanto Griffin | Ponte Vedra Beach FL | 8 |
Tyler Duncan | Ponte Vedra Beach FL | 8 |
Russell Knox | Ponte Vedra Beach FL | 8 |
Billy Horschel | Ponte Vedra Beach FL | 8 |
Sam Ryder | Atlantic Beach FL | 9 |
Doc Redman | Jacksonville FL | 18 |
Mathematically speaking
The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.
Statistic | Correlation to results |
---|---|
Top of the heap | 0.366 |
I love this place | 0.175 |
Ooh, that’s hot | 0.127 |
Location, location, location | 0.026 |