14
Mar

Valspar Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Justin Thomas heads the field in this week’s Valspar Championship in the northern coastal area of metro Tampa-St. Petersburg. Thomas is the only member of the Hawley Ratings top 10 who is in the field — he’s seventh — and he is playing fairly well. He was just above the cut line in last week’s TPC but before that he was 21st, 20th, and fourth in the Palmer, Genesis, and Phoenix, respectively. He has 15 career wins, most recently last year’s PGA.

Of all courses on the Tour, the Innisbrook Copperhead course has the strongest correlation between success and a player’s performance in any one particular stat. That stat is driving accuracy, and Brian Harman is the highest-ranked player in that stat in the Valspar field, hitting just over 68 percent of his fairways. Others in the field and highly ranked in that stat include Ryan Armour, Zak Blair, Ryan Moore, Aaron Rai, and Chez Reavie. These guys are not bombers but they have been doing what it takes to be successful on this course.

Jordan Spieth, second-highest ranked player in the field at no. 16, comes in playing mostly very well. He was in the top 20 at TPC, fourth in the Palmer, and sixth at Phoenix. Also there was a missed cut at the Genesis. Justin Suh opened eyes with his sixth-place finish in TPC. He’s enjoying his Florida swing; before that he was 24th in the Palmer and fifth in the Honda.


Justin Thomas
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Justin Thomas 14.2 10
2 Jordan Spieth 16.6 3
3 Sam Burns 20.3 6
4 Matthew Fitzpatrick 31.3 88
5 Adam Hadwin 33.4 88
6 Justin Rose 39.7 36
7 Denny McCarthy 40.2 19
8 Keegan Bradley 40.5 DNP
9 Taylor Montgomery 42.3 DNP
10 Tommy Fleetwood 42.5 3
11 Wyndham Clark 44.8 5
12 Justin Suh 45.3 45
13 Brian Harman 45.5 88
14 Taylor Moore 46.3 1
15 Ben Griffin 48.6 45
16 Maverick McNealy 49.7 36
17 Davis Riley 49.8 19
18 Gary Woodland 54.1 45
19 Nick Taylor 54.8 10
20 Sam Ryder 55.1 19
21 Eric Cole 55.4 73
22 Jhonattan Vegas 56.0 99
23 Aaron Rai 56.1 DNP
24 KH Lee 56.2 19
25 Brandon Wu 56.6 126
26 JT Poston 57.2 10
27 Trey Mullinax 57.3 99
28 Joel Dahmen 57.4 61
29 Robby Shelton 57.4 108
30 Lee Hodges 57.5 63
31 David Lingmerth 57.5 27
32 Patrick Rodgers 58.3 36
33 Stephan Jaeger 59.0 27
34 SH Kim 59.7 45
35 Ben Taylor 59.8 126
36 Matthew NeSmith 60.1 DNP
37 Alex Smalley 60.1 27
38 Beau Hossler 60.1 99
39 Kevin Kisner 61.1 108
40 Byeong Hun An 61.4 45
41 Adam Schenk 61.7 2
42 Dylan Frittelli 62.2 99
43 Erik van Rooyen 62.5 10
44 Zach Johnson 62.5 139
45 Webb Simpson 62.6 7
46 Nate Lashley 63.1 108
47 Chesson Hadley 63.6 88
48 Pierceson Coody 63.8 73
49 Troy Merritt 63.8 108
50 Mark Hubbard 63.9 119
51 Tyler Duncan 63.9 108
52 Victor Perez 64.1 45
53 Luke List 64.5 108
54 Ben Martin 64.6 45
55 Russell Knox 64.6 130
56 David Lipsky 64.8 36
57 Peter Malnati 65.1 73
58 Ludvig Aberg 65.2 61
59 Charley Hoffman 65.3 108
60 Nick Hardy 65.5 73
61 Kramer Hickok 65.5 45
62 Will Gordon 65.7 36
63 Lucas Glover 65.8 36
64 Garrick Higgo 65.8 58
65 Martin Laird 65.8 130
66 Dylan Wu 66.2 58
67 Adam Long 66.3 19
68 Kevin Streelman 66.3 27
69 Joseph Bramlett 66.7 36
70 Callum Tarren 66.9 DNP
71 Stewart Cink 67.1 88
72 Michael Thompson 67.2 19
73 Cameron Champ 67.3 73
74 Patton Kizzire 67.4 10
75 Ryan Moore 67.5 108
76 Aaron Baddeley 67.5 DNP
77 Justin Lower 67.5 88
78 Harry Hall 68.0 119
79 Harry Higgs 68.0 135
80 Luke Donald 68.1 126
81 Greyson Sigg 68.2 57
82 Chez Reavie 68.4 73
83 Andrew Novak 68.4 27
84 Matt Wallace 68.6 7
85 James Hahn 68.7 71
86 Harrison Endycott 68.8 65
87 Michael Kim 68.9 45
88 Cameron Percy 69.0 16
89 Samuel Stevens 69.3 73
90 Jimmy Walker 69.3 99
91 Doug Ghim 69.5 27
92 Hank Lebioda 69.5 58
93 Ryan Armour 69.8 45
94 Brent Grant 69.8 73
95 Kevin Tway 69.9 73
96 Matthias Schwab 70.1 135
97 Chris Stroud 70.2 DNP
98 Austin Smotherman 70.3 36
99 Erik Barnes 70.6 73
100 Chad Ramey 71.0 27
101 Doc Redman 71.1 16
102 Robert Streb 71.3 88
103 Brian Stuard 71.4 99
104 Nico Echavarria 71.4 130
105 Cole Hammer 71.6 119
106 Matthias Schmid 71.8 139
107 Zac Blair 71.8 10
108 MJ Daffue 71.8 19
109 Brice Garnett 71.9 88
110 Henrik Norlander 72.0 45
111 Tyson Alexander 72.1 65
112 Austin Cook 72.2 135
113 Rory Sabbatini 72.3 16
114 Kyle Westmoreland 72.4 130
115 Richy Werenski 72.4 27
116 Austin Eckroat 72.6 73
117 Bill Haas 72.9 DNP
118 Carl Yuan 72.9 63
119 Jim Herman 73.0 73
120 Estanislao Goya 73.2 99
121 Paul Haley 73.2 DNP
122 Akshay Bhatia 73.3 73
123 Kelly Kraft 73.3 108
124 Max McGreevy 73.3 119
125 Martin Trainer 73.7 135
126 Michael Gligic 73.8 88
127 Vincent Norrman 74.0 108
128 Augusto Nunez 74.1 119
129 John Vanderlaan 74.1 99
130 Carson Young 74.2 119
131 Jason Dufner 74.5 36
132 Jonathan Byrd 74.6 99
133 Scott Harrington 74.7 73
134 Andrew Landry 74.7 45
135 Ryan Brehm 74.9 65
136 Zecheng Dou 74.9 69
137 Cody Gribble 75.1 7
138 Wesley Bryan 75.4 142
139 Kevin Roy 75.9 88
140 Trevor Werbylo 76.8 27
141 Kyle Stanley 76.9 88
142 JB Holmes 76.9 119
143 Anders Albertson 77.5 DNP
144 Greg Koch 77.6 126
145 Brandon Matthews 77.6 130
146 Trevor Cone 78.1 65
Sean O’Hair late entry 23
Nick Gabrelcik late entry 70
Ryan Gerard late entry 72
Danny Guise late entry 83
Chris Nido late entry 118
Peter Knade late entry 140
Alex Chiarella late entry 143
More | Less
Mar 20, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 141. The average is 163. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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