I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Sam Burns	0.726
Justin Thomas	0.544
Adam Hadwin	0.468
Luke Donald	0.459
Russell Knox	0.443
Matthew NeSmith	0.433
Troy Merritt	0.411
Stewart Cink	0.387

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	7	1535.1
Jordan Spieth	16	1304.4
Sam Burns	18	1230.7
Matthew Fitzpatrick	19	1223.7
Taylor Montgomery	24	1138.9
Keegan Bradley	29	1070.4
Adam Hadwin	33	1011.5
Justin Rose	35	978.5

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	2113.8
Scottie Scheffler	2	2068.1
Jon Rahm	3	1959.4
Rory McIlroy	4	1881.9

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Jordan Spieth	1816.4
Justin Suh	1323.3
Eric Cole	946.3
Wyndham Clark	882.6
Sam Ryder	761.3
Adam Hadwin	745.3
David Lingmerth	736.8
Justin Rose	660.6

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Taylor Montgomery	-834.7
Maverick McNealy	-736.9
Brian Harman	-637.7
JT Poston	-633.8
Joel Dahmen	-615.3
Kevin Kisner	-599.1
Alex Smalley	-573.7
KH Lee	-512.8

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Innisbrook Copperhead course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.35	Driving accuracy
0.21	Driving distance
0.13	Sand saves
0.06	Shots gained in approach

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthew Fitzpatrick	71.33
Ryan Armour	71.38
Brian Harman	71.40
Will Gordon	71.40
Martin Laird	71.62
Webb Simpson	71.72
Adam Hadwin	71.72
Kevin Streelman	71.72

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Trevor Werbylo	73.7
Brandon Matthews	73.6
Ryan Brehm	73.5
Scott Harrington	73.4
Kyle Stanley	73.3
Richy Werenski	73.3
Aaron Baddeley	73.3
Kyle Westmoreland	73.2

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Palm Harbor FL, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Kevin Roy	Tampa FL	27
Hank Lebioda	Orlando FL	100
Byeong Hun An	Orlando FL	100
David Lingmerth	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Tyler Duncan	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Carl Yuan	Jacksonville FL	175
Doc Redman	Jacksonville FL	175

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.365
I love this place	0.172
Ooh, that’s hot	0.132
Location, location, location	0.030