27
Mar

Valero Texas Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The mingling of what used to be normal events on the PGA Tour with $20 million (and up) events is causing the formerly normal events to suffer a severe reduction in strength of field. The latest example is this week’s Valero Texas Open in San Antonio TX, where one of the world’s top 20 golfers (per the Hawley Ratings), and nine of the top 50, will appear. Those noted include no. 12 Tyrrell Hatton, no. 22 Taylor Montgomery, and no. 28 Keith Mitchell.

Hatton looked like a good pick in last week’s Match Play event, coming in off consecutive top-10s in the high-profile TPC and Palmer, but he lost three straight in group play and headed for San Antonio. The rookie Montgomery looked great while he was in a streak of eight top-20 finishes in nine events between September and January. Then he went five events in a row without hitting the top 30. Mitchell had top-10s at the Genesis and Pebble but nothing even in the top 20 since then.

Recent heat is being displayed by Rickie Fowler, once as high as no. 3 in the world but now kinda top-40ish. Things are looking up as he has been between 10th and 20th in five of the last six events going back to January. The stats most highly correlated with success on the TPC San Antonio course are putting and shots gained in approach. Based on their stat profiles, the best fits for the course would appear to be Montgomery, Davis Riley, Hideki Matsuyama, and Ryan Moore. Matt Kuchar has not missed the cut in the last 10 occurrences of this event, and he’s been in the top 20 the last three in a row.

Tyrrell Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Tyrrell Hatton 9.7 72
2 Rickie Fowler 32.5 10
3 Keith Mitchell 35.1 DNP
4 Matt Kuchar 38.0 3
5 Corey Conners 39.0 1
6 Hideki Matsuyama 40.3 15
7 Si Woo Kim 40.5 39
8 Taylor Montgomery 41.2 22
9 Chris Kirk 45.7 10
10 Ben Griffin 46.5 72
11 Davis Riley 48.3 WD
12 Cameron Davis 50.9 88
13 Andrew Putnam 51.3 28
14 Brendon Todd 52.4 53
15 Ryan Fox 52.7 123
16 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 52.9 28
17 Nick Taylor 54.7 15
18 JJ Spaun 54.8 22
19 Thomas Detry 55.3 64
20 Charley Hoffman 55.5 22
21 David Lingmerth 55.6 123
22 Alex Noren 55.9 15
23 Adam Schenk 56.2 72
24 Sam Ryder 56.2 3
25 Aaron Rai 56.2 28
26 Trey Mullinax 57.6 123
27 Stephan Jaeger 57.9 DNP
28 Brandon Wu 57.9 58
29 Taylor Pendrith 58.1 88
30 Alex Smalley 59.1 100
31 Eric Cole 59.1 39
32 Sepp Straka 59.5 22
33 Robby Shelton 59.9 15
34 Francesco Molinari 60.4 133
35 Ben Taylor 60.5 72
36 Erik van Rooyen 60.8 123
37 SH Kim 60.8 15
38 Byeong Hun An 61.2 6
39 Patrick Rodgers 61.4 5
40 Beau Hossler 61.4 46
41 Matthew NeSmith 61.4 111
42 Matt Wallace 61.5 28
43 Lee Hodges 61.5 6
44 Kevin Streelman 61.9 46
45 Emiliano Grillo 61.9 53
46 Lanto Griffin 62.4 15
47 Ryan Palmer 63.1 100
48 Lucas Glover 63.2 45
49 Hayden Buckley 63.3 10
50 Nate Lashley 63.6 111
51 Davis Thompson 63.7 DNP
52 Dylan Frittelli 63.8 139
53 Mark Hubbard 63.8 116
54 Troy Merritt 64.0 72
55 Tyler Duncan 64.1 58
56 Luke List 64.3 39
57 Martin Laird 64.6 123
58 Patton Kizzire 64.6 64
59 Ben Martin 64.9 10
60 Chesson Hadley 64.9 60
61 Cameron Percy 65.0 DNP
62 Will Gordon 65.0 111
63 Nick Hardy 65.3 28
64 Pierceson Coody 65.5 53
65 Michael Thompson 65.5 39
66 Aaron Baddeley 65.7 DNP
67 Padraig Harrington 66.1 10
68 Adam Long 66.1 132
69 Peter Malnati 66.2 22
70 Garrick Higgo 66.3 64
71 Zac Blair 66.5 123
72 Callum Tarren 66.9 72
73 Russell Knox 66.9 72
74 Scott Piercy 66.9 100
75 Ryan Moore 67.2 72
76 Doug Ghim 67.2 88
77 Harry Hall 67.9 28
78 Joseph Bramlett 67.9 72
79 MJ Daffue 67.9 15
80 Cameron Champ 68.1 88
81 Greyson Sigg 68.2 72
82 Kramer Hickok 68.3 136
83 Stewart Cink 68.4 88
84 Jimmy Walker 68.6 22
85 Justin Lower 68.7 70
86 Chez Reavie 68.7 6
87 Kevin Chappell 68.9 39
88 Dylan Wu 68.9 39
89 Doc Redman 69.0 88
90 James Hahn 69.0 136
91 Andrew Novak 69.1 9
92 Matthias Schwab 69.1 116
93 Chad Ramey 69.2 72
94 Harry Higgs 69.2 28
95 Austin Smotherman 69.3 100
96 Samuel Stevens 69.5 2
97 Michael Kim 69.7 46
98 Harrison Endycott 69.7 100
99 Luke Donald 70.2 46
100 Ryan Armour 70.5 100
101 Kazuki Higa 70.7 116
102 Henrik Norlander 70.8 60
103 Satoshi Kodaira 70.8 64
104 Austin Eckroat 71.4 100
105 Brice Garnett 71.4 60
106 Richy Werenski 71.5 116
107 Akshay Bhatia 71.5 46
108 Hank Lebioda 71.6 72
109 Kevin Tway 71.6 123
110 Cole Hammer 71.7 64
111 Brian Stuard 71.9 72
112 Nico Echavarria 72.0 28
113 Brent Grant 72.0 88
114 Robert Streb 72.0 DNP
115 Chris Stroud 72.1 DNP
116 Matthias Schmid 72.3 46
117 Austin Cook 72.5 123
118 Paul Haley 72.5 DNP
119 Andrew Landry 72.6 88
120 Estanislao Goya 72.8 46
121 Kelly Kraft 72.9 123
122 Carl Yuan 73.3 88
123 Max McGreevy 73.4 88
124 Bill Haas 73.8 DNP
125 Carson Young 73.9 116
126 Vincent Norrman 74.0 88
127 Michael Gligic 74.0 WD
128 Jim Herman 74.0 88
129 Kyle Westmoreland 74.1 111
130 Jonathan Byrd 74.2 DNP
131 Brian Gay 74.3 DNP
132 Augusto Nunez 74.5 37
133 Scott Harrington 74.5 111
134 Nick Watney 74.9 72
135 Zecheng Dou 75.2 72
136 Jason Dufner 75.3 60
137 Trevor Werbylo 75.3 56
138 Kevin Roy 75.7 100
139 Kyle Stanley 76.7 71
140 Brandon Matthews 77.0 WD
141 Anders Albertson 77.4 DNP
142 Davis Love 77.6 DNP
143 Jesse Mueller 77.6 100
144 JJ Wood 77.6 133
145 Trevor Cone 78.3 72
146 JB Holmes 78.4 116
Nicolai Hojgaard late entry 32
Roberto Diaz late entry 37
Ryan Gerard late entry 57
Chandler Phillips late entry 69
Peter Kuest late entry 103
Peter Lansburgh late entry 109
Ricky Barnes late entry 116
Austen Truslow late entry 134
David Carey late entry 138
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Apr. 3, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 164. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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