I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Hideki Matsuyama	0.805
Justin Thomas	0.769
Jon Rahm	0.742
Rory McIlroy	0.724
Cameron Smith	0.691
Dustin Johnson	0.677
Patrick Reed	0.627
Jordan Spieth	0.615

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2144.0
Patrick Cantlay	2	2135.2
Rory McIlroy	3	1971.3
Jon Rahm	4	1930.0
Xander Schauffele	5	1796.1
Max Homa	6	1634.2
Justin Thomas	7	1567.4
Viktor Hovland	8	1507.2

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Daniel Berger	21	1195.5
Taylor Montgomery	22	1171.1
Rickie Fowler	33	1009.0
Paul Casey	34	998.2

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Max Homa	2104.5
Scottie Scheffler	1880.2
Jason Day	1817.8
Viktor Hovland	1391.9
Patrick Cantlay	1364.5
Cameron Young	1268.1
Jordan Spieth	1218.6
Ryan Fox	1128.5

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Smith	-1054.7
Will Zalatoris	-716.6
Jon Rahm	-701.1
Scott Stallings	-590.1
Aaron Wise	-565.0
Brooks Koepka	-559.4
Harold Varner	-553.8
Matthew Fitzpatrick	-524.8

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Augusta National course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.21	Greens in regulation
0.17	Putts per GIR
0.13	Scrambling
0.05	Shots gained around the green

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Tom Kim	71.68
Scottie Scheffler	71.74
Cameron Smith	71.97
Xander Schauffele	71.99
Patrick Cantlay	72.11
Tony Finau	72.16
Sungjae Im	72.16
Justin Thomas	72.16

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brooks Koepka	73.9
Gary Woodland	73.8
Cameron Champ	73.7
Francesco Molinari	73.6
Zach Johnson	73.6
Danny Willett	73.6
Sepp Straka	73.6
Mac Hughes	73.5

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Augusta GA, home to the event.

Player	Residence	Distance
Kevin Kisner	Aiken SC	16
Sepp Straka	Athens GA	75
Chris Kirk	Athens GA	75
Russell Henley	Kiawah Island SC	125
Mac Hughes	Charlotte NC	125
Harold Varner	Charlotte NC	150
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	175
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	175
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	175
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	175

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.172
Ooh, that’s hot	0.127
Location, location, location	0.111