08
May

AT&T Byron Nelson Power Rankings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

For PGA Tour players and others who must travel for a living, there’s nothing like getting home and sleeping in your own bed. Also, for a pro golfer it doesn’t hurt to be the top-rated player in an event, arrive on site playing very well, and have confidence that the course is one on which you should play very well. That’s all true for Scottie Scheffler, Dallas resident who heads the field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. Scheffler is no. 2 in the world (Hawley Rankings), and the only other top-10 player in the field is no. 9 Tyrrell Hatton. From ranks 11 thru 20, it’s only Jordan Spieth and Jason Day.

In two iterations of this event on the TPC Craig Ranch course (both won by KH Lee), the statistics most highly correlated with success on the course have been greens in regulation and driving distance. Scheffler is in the top 5 percent in GIR and top quarter in driving distance. His steady excellence has been no secret for a long time. He’s appeared 12 times since November and his worst finish in the span is 12th in the Genesis. He’s been in the top 10 nine times and won TPC and at Phoenix.

The only player who would appear to be a better statistical fit for the course is Min Woo Lee, who is in the top 10 percent in both GIR and driving. And in terms of recent success, veterans Matt Kuchar, Hidecki Matsuyama, and Jimmy Walker have been solid. Kuchar was third when the Tour last visited Texas (Valero Texas Open in April), and has two other top-20s and a 23rd last week in his last four outings. Matsuyama comes in off a one-month break, with had a pair of top-20s at the Masters and Texas immediately prior, plus a top-10 at TPC. For Walker, it’s been a long time since his last top-10 (June of 2021) but he’s been in the top 25 four of his last five starts, with a best of 14th last week.

Among the under-30 set, Min Woo Lee, Michael Kim, Dylan Wu, and Carson Young have shown upward mobility in the rankings. Lee had a great winter on the other side of the globe and was sixth in TPC. Kim was in the top 10 at the Wells Fargo last week. Wu has made all but one cut since February, with one top-10. Young had a pair of top-20s in April.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -12.8 5
2 Jordan Spieth 17.3 DNP
3 Tyrrell Hatton 21.0 5
4 Jason Day 28.2 1
5 Hideki Matsuyama 31.1 23
6 Tom Kim 31.9 34
7 Matt Kuchar 32.0 43
8 KH Lee 34.9 50
9 Adam Scott 35.7 8
10 Seamus Power 40.9 19
11 Adam Hadwin 41.6 34
12 Taylor Montgomery 43.1 50
13 Tom Hoge 46.0 43
14 Si Woo Kim 46.6 2
15 Aaron Wise 47.1 50
16 Davis Riley 49.6 85
17 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.4 23
18 JJ Spaun 52.0 DNP
19 Ben Griffin 52.1 96
20 Maverick McNealy 52.2 96
21 Min Woo Lee 52.7 134
22 Scott Stallings 52.8 123
23 Mark Hubbard 54.3 DNP
24 Justin Suh 54.5 113
25 Mac Hughes 54.7 14
26 Matthew NeSmith 55.6 30
27 Byeong Hun An 55.8 14
28 Jimmy Walker 56.4 74
29 SH Kim 56.4 50
30 Stephan Jaeger 56.7 11
31 Adam Schenk 57.3 85
32 Alex Smalley 57.9 DNP
33 Nate Lashley 58.8 23
34 Aaron Rai 58.9 96
35 Robby Shelton 59.1 43
36 Michael Kim 59.2 123
37 Brandon Wu 59.2 23
38 Eric Cole 60.8 23
39 Erik van Rooyen 61.3 113
40 Trey Mullinax 61.7 113
41 Vincent Norrman 62.7 8
42 Lanto Griffin 62.7 DNP
43 Dylan Wu 62.8 85
44 David Lipsky 62.9 85
45 Troy Merritt 63.2 151
46 Davis Thompson 63.3 70
47 Patton Kizzire 63.5 30
48 Ryan Palmer 63.6 8
49 Michael Thompson 63.7 DNP
50 Harry Hall 63.9 83
51 Joseph Bramlett 64.0 19
52 Sean O’Hair 64.6 50
53 Luke List 64.7 34
54 Adam Long 65.2 50
55 Dylan Frittelli 65.3 85
56 Will Gordon 65.5 70
57 Doug Ghim 65.6 19
58 Carson Young 65.8 14
59 Russell Knox 65.8 104
60 Zac Blair 65.9 DNP
61 Andrew Novak 66.2 67
62 Cameron Champ 66.3 50
63 MJ Daffue 66.3 141
64 CT Pan 66.3 4
65 Chad Ramey 66.5 50
66 Charley Hoffman 66.6 85
67 Tyler Duncan 66.6 123
68 Martin Laird 66.8 34
69 Cameron Percy 67.1 123
70 Garrick Higgo 67.1 30
71 Lucas Glover 67.1 79
72 Harry Higgs 67.6 123
73 Matthias Schwab 67.7 85
74 Scott Piercy 67.7 19
75 Stewart Cink 67.8 34
76 Greyson Sigg 67.8 85
77 Vincent Whaley 67.9 79
78 Austin Smotherman 68.0 104
79 Aaron Baddeley 68.1 23
80 Cody Gribble 68.3 123
81 Chesson Hadley 68.3 113
82 David Micheluzzi 68.3 67
83 James Hahn 68.4 50
84 Ryan Gerard 68.5 146
85 Pierceson Coody 69.2 123
86 Justin Lower 69.3 43
87 Kramer Hickok 69.5 141
88 Brice Garnett 69.8 77
89 Robert Streb 69.8 67
90 Kevin Chappell 69.8 104
91 Martin Trainer 69.8 123
92 Doc Redman 69.9 30
93 Ryan Armour 70.4 50
94 Ryan Moore 70.5 96
95 Harrison Endycott 70.5 50
96 Henrik Norlander 70.7 34
97 Michael Gligic 71.4 85
98 Matthias Schmid 71.4 141
99 Satoshi Kodaira 71.6 43
100 Seung-yul Noh 71.8 74
101 Chris Stroud 71.8 50
102 Kevin Tway 71.9 11
103 Austin Eckroat 71.9 2
104 Hank Lebioda 72.0 DNP
105 Tyson Alexander 72.1 96
106 Brandon Matthews 72.2 141
107 Brian Stuard 72.2 113
108 Austin Cook 72.4 85
109 Brent Grant 72.4 83
110 Estanislao Goya 72.4 50
111 William McGirt 72.5 64
112 Richy Werenski 72.9 11
113 Carl Yuan 73.1 137
114 Augusto Nunez 73.1 34
115 Bill Haas 73.1 74
116 Paul Haley 73.2 146
117 Jonathan Byrd 73.3 43
118 Roger Sloan 73.6 79
119 Nick Watney 73.6 134
120 Kelly Kraft 73.7 79
121 Kevin Roy 73.7 85
122 Kyle Westmoreland 73.7 137
123 Max McGreevy 73.8 137
124 Trevor Werbylo 73.9 134
125 Sung Kang 73.9 14
126 Geoff Ogilvy 74.2 123
127 Zecheng Dou 74.7 5
128 Ricky Barnes 74.9 141
129 Scott Harrington 74.9 50
130 Ryan Brehm 75.0 64
131 Jonas Blixt 75.1 104
132 Andrew Landry 75.2 146
133 Jim Herman 75.2 70
134 Jason Dufner 75.3 137
135 Sangmoon Bae 75.6 43
136 Wesley Bryan 75.6 123
137 Grayson Murray 75.6 96
138 Bo Van Pelt 75.7 104
139 Fabian Gomez 75.9 77
140 Scott Brown 76.0 113
141 Tommy Gainey 76.4 34
142 Derek Ernst 76.4 153
143 Derek Lamely 76.4 155
144 Greg Chalmers 76.7 70
145 Camilo Villegas 76.7 DNP
146 Sam Stevens 77.0 34
147 DA Points 77.2 151
148 Kyle Stanley 77.3 113
149 Ben Crane 77.5 146
150 DJ Trahan 77.6 96
151 George McNeill 77.6 123
152 Arjun Atwal 77.7 DNP
153 Trevor Cone 77.7 23
154 Ted Potter 77.8 96
155 Kevin Stadler 77.8 113
156 Parker Coody 77.8 64
157 JJ Killeen 77.9 113
158 William Knauth 77.9 153
159 Peter Kuest 77.9 14
160 Richard Johnson 77.9 155
Logan McCracken late entry 105
Taylor Bibbs late entry 108
Mac Meissner late entry 110
Bobby Massa late entry 112
Robert Garrigus late entry 114
Jeffrey Kang late entry 146
More | Less
May 15, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 118. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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