I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.862
Sungjae Im	0.698
Max Homa	0.668
Scottie Scheffler	0.661
Keegan Bradley	0.640
Corey Conners	0.572
Harris English	0.563
Chris Kirk	0.542

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3018.9
Xander Schauffele	2	2474.6
Rory McIlroy	3	2319.0
Collin Morikawa	4	2014.4
Patrick Cantlay	5	1919.3
Russell Henley	6	1851.9
Ludvig Aberg	7	1813.0
Tommy Fleetwood	8	1722.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Luke Clanton	16	1407.6
Jon Rahm	21	1340.1
Tyrrell Hatton	24	1289.5
Alex Noren	25	1262.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Michael Kim	2357.4
Justin Thomas	1873.0
Daniel Berger	1484.7
Min Woo Lee	1381.0
Sepp Straka	1264.4
Nick Taylor	1262.4
Russell Henley	1224.3
Akshay Bhatia	1044.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Xander Schauffele	-1174.5
Corey Conners	-1152.2
Sungjae Im	-1123.4
Max Homa	-945.5
Viktor Hovland	-910.1
Byeong Hun An	-813.0
Eric Cole	-677.6
Sahith Theegala	-652.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Bay Hill course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joel Dahmen	72.09
Aaron Rai	72.11
Daniel Berger	72.12
Doug Ghim	72.14
Henrik Norlander	72.15
Greyson Sigg	72.16
Si Woo Kim	72.16
Adam Svensson	72.17

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	72.7
Mac Hughes	72.6
Chris Gotterup	72.6
SH Kim	72.6
Peter Malnati	72.6
Davis Riley	72.5
Aaron Baddeley	72.5
Pierceson Coody	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Orlando FL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Byeong Hun An	Orlando, FL	29
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	125
Nico Echavarria	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	125
Eric Cole	Tequesta, FL	150
Lucas Glover	Tequesta, FL	150
Patrick Rodgers	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	150
Cameron Young	Jupiter, FL	150
Xander Schauffele	Jupiter, FL	150
Shane Lowry	Jupiter, FL	150
Justin Thomas	Jupiter, FL	150
Taylor Pendrith	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	150
Denny McCarthy	Jupiter, FL	150
Patrick Cantlay	Jupiter, FL	150
Daniel Berger	Jupiter, FL	150

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.383
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.122
Location, location, location	0.010