Monday night, the following was released in a statement by David Winkle, agent and manager for Dustin Johnson: “Following his successful week in Saudi Arabia, Dustin has decided it would be best to enjoy a week at home before the Genesis Invitational and the World Golf Championships at the Concession. Other than being a bit jet lagged, he is feeling great and looking forward to the weeks ahead … He is disappointed to miss the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is always one of his favorite weeks.” Right, got it.

This is just the logical outcome of traveling over 16,000 miles (round trip) to pick up an appearance fee and whatever winnings result from playing in an event with a purse so small that the top players wouldn’t even sniff at it if it were played in the western hemisphere. On Jan. 31, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Reed finished their final rounds in the Farmers Insurance Open near San Diego and boarded a plane heading over eastern Canada toward Riyadh, where they ran into fellow PGA Tour pros Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau, Johnson, Jason Kokrak, and Kevin Na, not to mention a good handful of European natives who also play the PGA Tour, all for the thrill of competing in an event that paid under $575,00 to the winner and down to $65,000 for 10th.

Well of course these guys are independent contractors and able to do whatever they feel is in their best interest. Whether it’s in the best interest of the tour that provides the bulk of their personal wealth is another question altogether. Bottom line, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this weekend at the fabled California peninsula is left with a field weaker than all but the bottom few PGA Tour events. We’ll go with Patrick Cantlay as favorite.

Cantlay has kind of a mixed record here but he has been playing well and his game matches up well statistically with what has been successful in this event in recent seasons. He finished strongly in 2020 with the Zozo win and a top-20 at the Masters, then started up again pretty well with a top-20 at the Champions and a runner-up finish at the AmEx three weeks ago. Cantlay has played this event four times, with his seventh-place finish as a 21-year-old in 2013 being the best. He made the cut in 2017 and 2018 and was 11th last year.

Cantlay is the only player from the Hawley Rankings top 10 in the field. Second-favorite Daniel Berger is the only player from the next 10 in the field, and Paul Casey, fresh – or maybe not so fresh – back from a trip to Saudi Arabia, is the only player from the third 10. The ratings breakdown is similar if the Official World Golf Ratings are your point of reference.

Berger has two appearances here and finished in the top 10 both times – fifth last year and 10th in 2015. He didn’t miss a cut from July until last week in Phoenix, with two top-10s and four other top-20s in a 10-event span. Casey is playing for the fourth week in a row. He finished in the top 10 in the AmEx in the California desert, then won the Omega Dubai near the UAE desert, was 12th last week in the Saudi desert, and now finds himself along the central California coast. He finished just above the cut line here last year, spoiling a fine Pebble Beach record that consists of all top-10s – eighth in 2018 and second in 2019.

The absence of so many of the high-ranking players opens things up for a number of up-and-comers, among them 24-year-olds Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, and Will Zalatoris.

• Burns – Has mixed in two missed cuts with two top-10s and a top-20 since September.
• Norlander – Had two bad runs of missed cuts since the end of last summer but in the last three weeks has finished 22nd at Phoenix, second in the Farmers, and 12th in the AmEx.
• Zalatoris – Shot out of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last summer to finish sixth in the U.S. Open and eighth at Puntacana; and then after a missed cut he started a current streak of five straight made cuts, including top-10s at the Shriners and Farmers.

No disrespect is intended toward those who might have some gray hairs around the ears. The field includes Casey, 43; Matt Kuchar, 46; Phil Mickelson, 50; Rory Sabbatini, 44; and Kevin Streelman, 42, none of whom would surprise as a contender.

Based on the Hawley course fit statistics, four of the strokes-gained statistics are the stats most closely correlated with success in this multi-course — Pebble Beach, Spyglass, and Monterey Peninsula – event over the past eight years. In order (although they are all nearly equally weighted), they are strokes gained off the tee, in approach, putting, and around the green. Zalatoris, Cantlay, and Burns are three of the top four players in the field in course fit, with Francesco Molinari the other. A player who may be unfamiliar to you, 19-year-old Akshay Bhatia of North Carolina, surprisingly shows up high on the list of strong fits for these courses. He has played 12 Tour events and missed the cut in 10 of them, but he is in the top 10 percent of all PGA and Euro pros in shots gained around the green and in the top quarter in shots gained off the tee and in approach. Bhatia’s first made cut was a ninth at the Safeway in September, and he later made the cut at Mayakoba. Pgatour.com lists him at 130 pounds.

Kamaiu Johnson, who was set to make his PGA Tour debut at the Farmers but cancelled after a positive COVID-19 test, will tee it up. Johnson’s inspiring story — he was an eighth-grade dropout but discovered by an employee at a course in his hometown of Talahassee FL — caught the eyes of event organizers.

The Tour announced several weeks ago that not only would the tournament be played without spectators, but the 156 amateurs who normally play three rounds also would not take part this year.