I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .605 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.611
Scottie Scheffler	0.589
Brian Harman	0.562
Emiliano Grillo	0.458
Lucas Glover	0.446
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	0.431
Daniel Berger	0.403
David Lipsky	0.388

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3376.7
Tommy Fleetwood	5	1930.8
Hideki Matsuyama	15	1553.5
Harris English	22	1400.3
JT Poston	23	1400.2
Si Woo Kim	25	1394.7
Maverick McNealy	26	1384.5
Aaron Rai	29	1279.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	2	2582.6
Xander Schauffele	3	2425.4
Collin Morikawa	4	2165.0
Patrick Cantlay	6	1927.8

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Andrew Novak	2056.1
Harris English	1886.2
Daniel Berger	1520.2
Ben Griffin	1362.9
JT Poston	1323.5
Scottie Scheffler	1164.2
Chris Gotterup	1043.3
Tommy Fleetwood	995.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Lucas Glover	-975.6
Tom Hoge	-895.4
Akshay Bhatia	-893.5
Lee Hodges	-810.4
Will Zalatoris	-799.5
Tom Kim	-792.8
Robert MacIntyre	-686.9
Michael Kim	-604.7

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Colonial Country Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.21	Driving accuracy
0.20	Shots gained in approach
0.15	Shots gained putting
0.12	Greens in regulation

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Takumi Kanaya	73.16
Ben Kohles	73.20
Aaron Rai	73.22
Paul Peterson	73.36
Lucas Glover	73.36
Brice Garnett	73.43
Brian Campbell	73.50
Zach Johnson	73.50

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Frankie Capan	75.5
Thorbjorn Olesen	75.1
Peter Malnati	75.1
Trey Mullinax	74.9
Jake Knapp	74.8
Camilo Villegas	74.8
Patrick Fishburn	74.8
Vince Whaley	74.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Ft. Worth TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville, TX	17
Hayden Springer	Trophy Club, TX	22
Taylor Moore	Dallas, TX	33
Will Zalatoris	Dallas, TX	33
Mac Meissner	Dallas, TX	33
Frankie Capan	Dallas TX	33
Jordan Spieth	Dallas, TX	33
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas, TX	33
Si Woo Kim	Dallas, TX	33
Harry Higgs	Dallas, TX	33

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.116
Location, location, location	0.011