I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .605 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Rose	0.818
Shane Lowry	0.735
Brooks Koepka	0.717
Rory McIlroy	0.705
Xander Schauffele	0.686
Scottie Scheffler	0.619
Viktor Hovland	0.601
Collin Morikawa	0.591

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3232.1
Rory McIlroy	2	2662.5
Xander Schauffele	3	2442.0
Collin Morikawa	4	2226.8
Patrick Cantlay	5	2009.9
Justin Thomas	6	1974.7
Tommy Fleetwood	7	1967.8
Russell Henley	8	1933.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Luke Clanton	24	1307.6
Billy Horschel	45	1116.1
Sebastian Munoz	87	728.3
Andrew Putnam	91	705.2

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Andrew Novak	2488.0
Rory McIlroy	1854.9
Jordan Spieth	1536.0
Daniel Berger	1437.8
Mackenzie Hughes	1397.2
Patrick Reed	1232.7
Tom Hoge	1218.4
Brian Harman	1159.5

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Adam Scott	-1123.7
Ludvig Aberg	-1119.0
Robert MacIntyre	-914.8
Tony Finau	-904.2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-879.1
Akshay Bhatia	-859.7
Lee Hodges	-843.3
Tom Kim	-822.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Quail Hollow course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.23	Greens in regulation
0.17	Shots gained off the tee
0.14	Shots gained in approach
0.13	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Laurie Canter	71.59
Rory McIlroy	71.79
Taylor Pendrith	71.97
Rico Hoey	71.98
Tom McKibbin	72.00
Keith Mitchell	72.01
Scottie Scheffler	72.06
Keita Nakajima	72.08

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nick Dunlap	74.8
Rafael Campos	73.8
Davis Riley	73.7
Brian Campbell	73.7
Cam Davis	73.5
Beau Hossler	73.5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	73.5
Tom Hoge	73.4

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Charlotte NC, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Alex Smalley	Greensboro, NC	75
Jacob Bridgeman	Greenville, SC	100
Carson Young	Anderson, SC	125
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	150
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	175
Brian Campbell	Hilton Head Island, SC	200
Stephan Jaeger	Chattanooga, TN	250
Andrew Novak	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Ben Griffin	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island, GA	275
JT Poston	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Patton Kizzire	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island, GA	275
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island, GA	275

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.371
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.119
Location, location, location	0.011