I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Brice Garnett	0.688
Aaron Baddeley	0.450
Richy Werenski	0.416
Henrik Norlander	0.395
Ryan Brehm	0.392
Bill Haas	0.390
Ben Kohles	0.352
Cody Gribble	0.341

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Adam Schenk	80	742.8
Adam Svensson	105	606.0
Vince Whaley	108	592.3
Patrick Fishburn	119	545.6
Michael Thorbjornsen	120	544.5
Bud Cauley	121	541.3
Matti Schmid	122	538.7
Matt Wallace	125	530.3

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3018.9
Xander Schauffele	2	2474.6
Rory McIlroy	3	2319.0
Collin Morikawa	4	2014.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Ryan Gerard	1002.7
Lanto Griffin	651.8
Brice Garnett	634.8
Bud Cauley	519.9
Niklas Norgaard	512.5
Quade Cummins	488.5
Kevin Roy	478.7
Camilo Villegas	383.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Patrick Fishburn	-506.8
Adam Svensson	-480.3
Matt Wallace	-469.1
Michael Thorbjornsen	-468.4
Carson Young	-457.4
Thriston Lawrence	-391.1
David Lipsky	-357.9
Chesson Hadley	-335.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Grand Reserve course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last five years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.11	Shots gained in approach
0.08	Putts per GIR
0.07	Shots gained off the tee
0.06	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jackson Suber	71.05
David Lipsky	71.21
Henrik Norlander	71.22
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	71.28
Blades Brown	71.34
Antoine Rozner	71.36
Camilo Villegas	71.38
Chan Kim	71.39

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Davis Riley	72.4
Ryan Palmer	72.2
Kevin Velo	72.2
Kaito Onishi	72.2
Braden Thornberry	72.1
William Mouw	72.0
Thriston Lawrence	72.0
Will Chandler	72.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Rio Grande PR, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Richy Werenski	Jupiter, FL	1075
Kevin Tway	Jupiter, FL	1075
Ryan Gerard	Jupiter, FL	1075
Bud Cauley	Jupiter, FL	1075
Adam Svensson	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	1075
Hayden Buckley	Naples FL	1150
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1275
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1275
Ben Kohles	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1275

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.383
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.122
Location, location, location	0.010