Feb
A Look at the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Appearance fee? What appearance fee?
Two years ago, when the European Tour Saudi International event was played for the first time, the event — 8300 miles from San Diego, where the prior week PGA Tour event occurs — attracted three of the top 20 U.S.-based players from the Hawley world ratings. There were numerous articles out there about top-level pros receiving appearance fees in the half-million to $1 million range. Same head count last year, and more on-line articles about appearance fees.
This year, they’re up to four U.S.-based players from the top 20, and seven overall, and none of the major websites are even mentioning appearance fees. And the Waste Management Phoenix Open, competed every year since 1939 and host to the world’s largest crowds for golf, has merely two more entrants from the world top 20 than the Saudi International does. Hmm.
That means most of the world top 20 are playing somewhere. Of course, the rest of the field at Phoenix is much stronger. It includes 57 players from the top 100, vs. 26 at Riyadh. There are at least five players bunched at the top of the list of favorites at Phoenix, starting with
Simpson gets the nod primarily based on his record in this event. He is the defending champion, 2017 runner-up, and owner of two other top-10s and two more top-20s within the last eight years. He comes in playing solid golf, including a top-10 in his prior appearance, at the Sony. Since last fall’s Tour Championship, he has three top-10s, three other top-20s, and a worst of 37th at the RSM.
Rahm, noted Arizona State alum, had a chance to win at Torrey Pines last week before losing ground with an even-par weekend. His last several outings have been great, although they include a seven-week span of no tournament activity. He’s on a streak of four straight top-10s and hasn’t been worse than 23rd in his last 10 appearances. That stretch includes the wins at the Memorial and BMW last summer.
Although noted for its eye-popping par-3 16th hole with room for 30,000 spectators, the TPC Scottsdale Stadium course actually sets up pretty well as a balanced layout where players with solid overall games can expect success. The top three stats as correlated with results here over the past eight iterations of the event are shots gained in approach, driving distance, and sand saves. The next two players on the list of favorites, Thomas and Schauffele, are excellent fits for the course. Thomas was working on a streak of seven events with no finish worse than 12th when he took a pilgrimage to the Middle East two weeks ago and missed the cut at Abu Dhabi. He is in the top 5 percent of PGA Tour/ Euro Tour players in shot gained-approach and is in the top 1 percent in putts per GIR. Schauffele is in the top 10 percent of players in the shots gained-approach and sand saves categories noted above. He’s never missed the top 20 in three appearances here, nor has he been out of the top 20 anytime in five appearances in the 2020-’21 PGA Tour season.
McIlroy will tee it up in Phoenix for the first time in his career. As noted at pgatour.com, it’s part of a busy stretch for the two-time FedEx Cup winner, who is playing his third of an announced plan for nine events in 12 weeks. He’s in a rut (if you can call it a rut) of finishing solidly but not adding anything to the trophy case. He was third at Abu Dhabi two weeks back and then just inside the top 20 at Torrey Pines after the long ride back to the U.S.
Among others who may be ready to make below-the=radar challenges are
- Harrington – The 49-year-old, three-time major champion hasn’t missed a cut on either side of the Atlantic in seven appearances since his first time out after last year’s break in play. He’s a good fit for the course.
- Hoag – After missing five cuts in a row last fall, he has two in a row in the top 20 this year, four out of five in the top 30, and has raised his world rating from 255th to 167th.
- Kirk – Has six straight made cuts including three in the top 20, and was runner-up at the Sony.
- Kizzire – Has been good about half the time since September with three finishes of 11th or better in the last three months. In the top 5 percent in putting.
- Thompson – Has a nice little streak of four straight finishes in the top 25, including fifth at the American Express two weeks ago.
- Zalatoris – the hot new thing on this year’s Tour has four top-10s since the Tour Championship, including a seventh last week. He is no. 1 in the field in course fit per the Hawley course fit analysis, notably in the top 2 percent in shots gained-approach and top 5 percent in driving distance.
Just for the record, from the Hawley Ratings top 20, and in order, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and Viktor Hovland are playing the Saudi event this weekend. And from the same list, the following do not appear in the entries for either event: Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, and Brooks Koepka..