I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jon Rahm	0.813
Xander Schauffele	0.793
Justin Thomas	0.789
Hideki Matsuyama	0.655
Billy Horschel	0.590
Max Homa	0.528
Matt Kuchar	0.513
JT Poston	0.510

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1887.3
Jon Rahm	2	1834.0
Rory McIlroy	3	1832.6
Xander Schauffele	4	1661.1
Scottie Scheffler	5	1619.3
Justin Thomas	8	1382.0
Taylor Montgomery	9	1379.3
Sungjae Im	11	1305.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	6	1555.3
Cameron Smith	7	1392.2
Will Zalatoris	10	1350.4
Joaquin Niemann	18	1199.1

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Joel Dahmen	1357.4
Rickie Fowler	869.3
Collin Morikawa	725.9
Jon Rahm	666.8
Chris Kirk	659.4
JT Poston	649.0
Alex Noren	577.2
Si Woo Kim	541.5

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Jordan Spieth	-871.8
Shane Lowry	-848.1
Billy Horschel	-778.0
Sam Burns	-758.7
Tommy Fleetwood	-722.8
Justin Thomas	-719.3
Davis Riley	-640.6
Brian Harman	-638.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Scottsdale tournament course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.11	Putts per GIR
0.03	Shots gained in approach
0.02	Driving accuracy
0.01	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	69.76
Tom Kim	69.95
Scottie Scheffler	69.99
Xander Schauffele	70.01
Ben Griffin	70.01
Sam Burns	70.02
Justin Thomas	70.03
Viktor Hovland	70.04

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kyle Stanley	70.9
Jim Herman	70.5
Cameron Champ	70.4
Nick Watney	70.4
Gary Woodland	70.3
Doug Ghim	70.3
Luke List	70.3
Jason Dufner	70.3

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Scottsdale AZ, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Jon Rahm	Scottsdale AZ	10
Nate Lashley	Scottsdale AZ	10
Joel Dahmen	Scottsdale AZ	10
James Hahn	Scottsdale AZ	10
Max Homa	Scottsdale AZ	10
Kevin Streelman	Scottsdale AZ	10
Chez Reavie	Scottsdale AZ	10
Andrew Putnam	Phoenix AZ	16

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.364
I love this place	0.170
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.031