The pick this week in the WGC-Mexico Championship is Dustin Johnson, and if it seems like you frequently see that name atop someone’s list of picks for an event, you’re right. Within the last year, there almost certainly has been some shifting of players near the top of whatever rankings you prefer, and there have been plenty of higher-end events with strong fields, but one thing has been a constant: Johnson gets picked to win more than four times as often as anyone else.

From March 2018 to the current, Johnson has appeared in 23 events. For most (but not all) of them, I did a survey of various selection providers, including the Official World Golf ratings, the golfweek.com Sagarin Ratings, my own Hawley Ratings, and a variety of websites offering fresh picks every week. If Johnson was in the field, he was the top pick 56% of the time. The only other player who was close is Justin Rose, picked 13% of the time. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, each picked 6% of the time, were the only others above 3%.

And how often did these guys win? In the last year, it’s Johnson three

times (Saudi this month, Canadian in July, and FedEx in June). Rose also has three (Farmers in January, Turkish in November, Colonial in May), as does Koepka (CJ Cup in October, PGA in August, U.S. Open in June). Thomas has one (WGC-Bridgestone in August).

Johnson has a slight edge over Thomas this week because of a better record in this event. He has wins both in Mexico (last year) and back when the event was played at Doral (2015), plus three other top-10s. Thomas has three appearances including as runner-up last year, and a top-10 in 2017.

With a field this strong (eight of the top 10 in the current Hawley Ratings, everyone from 11th to 20th, and 38 of the top 50), it’s no surprise that multiple players come in with great success in the rear-view mirror. Among those with the best recent records are Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Thomas.

The only statistical bias that has been displayed on the Club de Golf Chapultepec course in the first two iterations of this event at this site is a strong correlation between greens in regulation and success. There is a small correlation involving driving distance. Thomas, who’s in the top 2% in GIR, has the statistical profile that best matches the course, per the Hawley course fit statistics. Kuchar and Gary Woodland also align. A little over half the field is within one stroke of Thomas in course fit. Among those close to the bottom in this statistic are Jordan Spieth and Tiger Woods.

With a limited-field event occurring in Mexico, the PGA Tour also offers a secondary event, the Puerto Rico Open, with a much smaller purse. Unfortunately, the field is woefully weak. There are a few ways to look at the event.

You’d like the currently highest-rated player? That’s Daniel Berger, the only Hawley Ratings top-50 player in the field (42nd).

You’d like the event’s all-time leading money-winner? That’s 2013 winner Scott Brown.
You’d like someone who fits the Coco Beach course? That’s Berger, Graeme McDowell, Corey Conners, or Cameron Davis, per the Hawley course fit statistics.
You’d like someone on the upswing? Easy, that’s Matt Every with three straight top-20s (Pebble Beach, RSM, Sanderson).
You’d like the player who has improved his rating the most since Jan. 1? Here he is, it’s Max Homa (from 470th to 200th).
You’d like some recent strong finishes? That’s McDowell with three straight top-20s (Pebble Beach, Shootout, RSM).
You’d like the best Mexican player who didn’t get into the field in the Mexico Championship? That’s Carlos Ortiz.