Webb Simpson and Patrick Cantlay, the two highest-rated players in the field per the Hawley Ratings, are the top two picks this week in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Simpson, who has accumulated the most money in this event over the past eight seasons, won it in 2013, has two other top-10s, and two other made cuts here over that span. He’s played only one event of the five so far this season, finishing in the top 20 in the Safeway. This is Cantlay’s first appearance at the TPC Summerlin course in Las Vegas. When last season began, Cantlay was basically known only for having had a great amateur career. He took off like a rocket in March and he played his way all the way to the Tour Championship, finishing in the top 50 on the money list. He was 15th in last week’sHSBC Champions in his only appearance so far this season.

There is a good sprinking of others playing the Shriners from the rankings top 50. The list includes Kevin Chappell, Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, JB Holmes, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Bubba Watson, and Gary Woodland. Two are former winners – Na in 2011 and Moore in 2012.

Looking back, Scott Piercy and Jason Bohn are the top two players in this event over the past eight years. Bohn has two runner-up finishes, one other in the top 10, and two others in the top 25. Piercy has two top-10s and four other finishes in the top 25. Both played the event all eight years.

TPC Summerlin has not shown much of a bias toward success based on any of the main statistical categories. Per the Hawley course statistics, driving distance, scrambling, sand saves, and driving accuracy are those most highly correlated with success on the course. After you run the players’ performance numbers through the equation, Woodland emerges as the player who is the best fit for the course, a small fraction ahead of Simpson, Brandon Hagy, and the lesser-known Matt Jones.