The incredible mass of humanity otherwise known at the Waste Management Phoenix Open is next up. Drawing crowds nearing 200,000 per day (except Sunday, Super Bowl day), this is the no. 1 attendance event on the PGA Tour. Many of those in attendance will focus on two-time defending champion Hideki Matsuyama, who ranks as the favorite again this year. In two 2018 appearances, he has been fourth in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a top-15 finisher last week in the Farmers Insurance Open. Additionally, he ranks in the top 15 of hottest players based on play in the last five months, and he is in the top 10 of players whose statistical profilebest matches what has been successful on the TPC Scottsdale course.
The next three names on the list of favorites all have some questions that need to be addressed. Second pick Rickie Fowler started last week’s Farmers Insurance Open by going four-under thru the first seven holes. Then he went four-over for the rest of Thursday and Friday and missed the cut by a stroke. No. 3 pick Jordan Spieth was ninth in the Champions but 12 strokes behind winner Dustin Johnson, then got just inside the top 20 the next week at the Sony. “I got a lot of work to do in the putting game,” Spieth said after the Sony. And moving to fourth pick Jon Rahm, we go from the sublime to the ridiculous. Rahm had the lead in the Farmers, got to 11 under after one hole on Saturday, and then blew up, shooting nine-over for the final 35 holes and finishing 29th. Rahm has played his way to the no. 2 spot in the Official World Golf Ratings; he is seventh in the Hawley Ratings, a better reflection of what he’s done since his comet took off last spring.
The top statistics in correlation with success at TPC Scottsdale are scrambling and greens in regulation, per the Hawley course fit statistics. The no. 1 player in the field from that perspective is Ryan Palmer, who is in the top 10% among U.S./ Euro pros in scrambling and in the top half in greens in regulation. Spieth, Rahm, and Chesson Hadley also appear to be well-matched to the course.
You might want to consider Tom Hoge from among those who are not among the big stars. Hoge, a 28-year-old who played at TCU, saw his name on the leaderboard a few times last weekend and came in 12th. Also outplaying their long-term form with recent improvement are Brandon Harkins and Brian Stuard. Harkins is a 31-year-old rookie from California who made the top 10 at the CareerBuilder and top 20 at the Farmers. Stuard was fourth at the Sony before missing the cut in the CareerBuilder.