Quite a few of the bigger names on the PGA Tour appear to be in no hurry to relocate their operations to the East Coast. This week’s Honda Classic at Palm Beach Gardens FL, on Florida’s Atlantic coast, about 80 miles north of Miami, has attracted a field with only three of the top 10 in the Hawley Ratings and four of the top 20. Those four appear in the top four spots on the list of event favorites, starting with Rickie Fowler. It’s no surprise to see Fowler on hand at PGA National after what he’s done here the last six years – most recently, last year’s victory, and before that two top 10s, a top 20, and two other made cuts in the five years immediately preceding 2017.
Fowler and no. 3 pick Rory McIlroy are still building momentum on the 2018 season. McIlroy has played only five times in the last five months, twice in the U.S. He missed the cut at Pebble Beach and was in the top 20 at the Genesis last weekend. He won this event in 2012. McIlroy also has a one-third of a stroke per round lead on everyone else in the field in the Hawley course fit statistics, meaning his statistical profile is the best match for what has been successful in winning here over the last eight years. Fowler has not appeared since his 11th-place finish at Phoenix and has two other 2017 U.S. appearances, including a top 10 at the year-opening Champions.
No. 2 pick Justin Thomas has been playing solidly, posting consecutive finishes in the top 20 in the Sony, Phoenix, and Genesis events.
The most predictive statistic on the Champions course at PGA National is scrambling, followed by greens in regulation and sand saves. Trailing McIlroy with strong statistical profiles for that set of stats are Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Austin Cook, and Tommy Fleetwood, in that order.
The field also includes a good example of a guy whose recent play, measured in his last four appearances, represents an improvement on established form, that being Scott Stallings. Stallings, ranked just outside the top 100, missed two cuts in January and then made the top 25 at Phoenix, the top 10 at Pebble Beach, and was fourth last weekend in the Genesis. Additionally, things have been getting rosier for Gary Woodland, Brian Gay, Alex Noren, John Huh, and Harris English over recent appearances.