Jordan Spieth has commented numerous times this year about working on his putting, and he’s not kidding. For the season ending with the 2017 Tour Championship, he ranked second on the PGA Tour in putts per green-in-regulation and 42nd in shots gained putting. This season’s stats show him 109th in shots per GIR and 163rd in shots gained putting. That latter stat is in the bottom quarter of PGA pros. Why then, you might ask, does Spieth show up first on the list of picks for this week’s Valspar Championship? The answer is that the rest of his game has been good enough to keep him in contention. He was in the top 15 in last week’s WGC-Mexico event, in the top 10 at the Genesis, and in the top 20 at Pebble Beach. He’s in the top 20 in the world in overall performance over the past five months. He won the Valspar in 2015.
Another thing Spieth has going for him is the fact that only one other player from the Hawley Ratings top 10 is entered – that’s no. 2 Paul Casey, who has slipped off slightly with a top-15 finish in Mexico and a top-50 at the Genesis, after finishing in the top 10 over half the time in a span of nearly a year. We have six others from the top 20 – Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson, Louis Oosthuizen, and Tony Finau, in ratings order.
There will be huge focus on Tiger Woods, entered in this event for the first time. Woods ranks around 30th in the field in his performance over his last four appearances, which is probably his top statistical indicator at this point, and 54th overall.
As has been the case for many years, this event is being played at the Copperhead course at the Innisbrook Resort, just north of Tampa and a mile or so from the Gulf. Per the Hawley course fit statistics, the top stats that have correlated with success on the course over the past eight years are greens in regulation and driving distance. Also putting, to a slightly lesser extent. The player whose statistical profile matches this most closely is Ross Fisher, with Sergio Garcia just slightly behind. Also strong are Chesson Hadley and Henrik Stenson. (Woods is below average in the field by this measurement.)
Scott Stallings has the look of a guy ready for a strong finish. Although just inside the top 100 among U.S./ Euro pros in the Hawley Ratings, he has two top-10s and two top-30s among his last four starts, with a fourth at the Genesis. Also showing improved form are Luke List, Byeong Hun An, Chez Reavie, and Tony Finau. List was runner-up in the Honda in his last start, with An right behind in fifth. Reavie was runner-up in two February events back-to-back, and Finau was runner-up in the Genesis.

Hawley Ratings thru March 4, 2018
Next week will be 52 weeks at no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings for Dustin Johnson, and he is guaranteed to still be there after sitting out this week’s Valspar Championship. It doesn’t seem likely that there will be any other movement elsewhere in the top 10, either, since no. 2 Paul Casey and no. 3 Jordan Spieth are the only others who are playing.
Assuming that Tiger Woods tees it up on Thursday, he will return to the ratings next week for the first time since last June. The ratings require a minimum of eight appearances over the prior two years before a player is included, and Woods hasn’t been at that appearance frequency anytime between July 2017 and this week. His current ratings number of 594 with seven appearances would have him ranked 82nd, between Russell Knox and William McGirt. A win this week would put him somewhere around 40th.
Phil Mickelson’s rank of ninth is unchanged from last week, although his Hawley Ratings number is up from 1328 to 1389, a healthy jump for a player with 49 rated appearances. It’s hard to say anything other than that Mickelson is red hot after he overcame a 72nd-hole eagle by Justin Thomas with two birdies in the last three holes and then won on the first extra hole. He has four straight appearances with a finish of sixth or better. At age 47, Mickelson was the oldest player in the WGC-Mexico Championship field. After the event, he told Cameron Morfit of pgatour.com, “I don’t feel that age. I mean, I like it. It’s cool, because not many people at this age are able to play at that level, but I don’t feel that age.”
Mickelson’s ratings number is his highest since September 2010, when he was 40 and wrapping up a season that included one win (the Masters), five other top-10s, and seven other top-25s in 20 appearances. “My body feels great,” he said after the Mexico event. “I’m starting to play some of my best golf. I’m actually hitting some shots better than I ever have in my career.” Amazing, at age 47.