RBC Heritage (Apr. 12-15, 2018)

Of course, the big question for the big names coming out of the Masters is whether they have decompressed to such an extent that they may not be competitive in the subsequent event. That’s the question for four of the top five picks in this week’s RBC Heritage, which is being competed, as usual, at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head SC, just a two-and-a-half hour drive to the southeast from Augusta GA.

One thing is for sure, and it’s that the average spectator can get into this one much easier and more cheaply than into the Masters.

Our top three picks for the Heritage all finished in the top 10 at the Masters. That’s Paul Casey (world no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings), Dustin Johnson (no. 1 in the Official World Golf Ratings), and Matt Kuchar. Add in fifth pick Marc Leishman and contenders Francesco Molinari and Webb Simpson and you have six players who finished in the top 30 in the Masters. According to the Hawley course fit statistics, Casey, Simpson, and 2014 Heritage winner Kuchar are among the players whose statistical profiles best match what has been successful at Harbour Town over the years. Sand saves have a statistically higher correlation to success at Harbour Town than at any other course in continuous use on the PGA Tour. Greens in regulation is the no. 2 stat.

In the last eight years, Casey has been here three times with a best finish just inside the top 20 in 2014. Johnson has not appeared in his home state since 2009. Kuchar and Simpson have played well here, Kuchar with one finish in the top 10 and two in the top 20 since his win in 2014. Simpson was runner-up in 2013 and has made all the cuts since then.

Among the up-and-comers you might want to consider are Abraham Ancer (on the alternates list as of Tuesday), Cameron Smith, and Dominic Bozzelli, each performing better recently than their long-term form. Established players meeting the same criteria include Martin Laird, Adam Hadwin, and Ian Poulter. Rookie Keith Mitchell (alternate) has shown good form recently.

The Heritage features four players with South Carolina ties, per the Charleston Post and Courier. Defending champion Wesley Bryan, Johnson, and Kevin Kisner are South Carolinians, and amateur Doc Redman played for Clemson.

Hawley Ratings thru April 8, 2018

The world’s no. 1 player per the Hawley Ratings, every top-15 player who rose in the ratings coming out of last week’s Masters, and both of the two players who reached new career ratings highs in the top 50 are non-U.S. players.

This is not to say that the demise of U.S. professional golf is upon us, but more of a tip of the hat to those non-U.S. players who are making things happen. Starting at the top, no. 1 Paul Casey made the Masters cut on the number, then put together a nice 10-under-par weekend to get up to 15th and provide a slight boost to his ratings number. Casey is from Cheltenham, England, about 100 miles east of London.

Climbers in the top 15 coming out of the Masters include Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson. Rahm, who has been as high as fourth, is up from eighth to sixth after shooting under par for the last three rounds and finishing fourth. Rahm is from Barrika, Spain, near the Bay of Biscay, north of Madrid. Day shot two-under-par to finish 20th. His rating number dropped slightly but still he moved up two ratings spots to seventh. Rose played four steady rounds in the Masters and finished 13th. Rose, rated ninth, was born in South Africa but is a resident of London. McIlroy was frustrated in his bid to pick up the missing trophy en route to a career Grand Slam, fading late Sunday to finish fifth. McIlroy has 57 weeks at no. 1 in his history and moved back into the ratings top 10. He’s from Holywood, Northern Ireland, just up the bay a bit from Belfast. Stenson is up two spots to 13th after finishing the Masters with three straight 70s to join McIlroy in that tie for fifth. He’s from Gothenburg, Sweden, on the country’s southwest coast.

Adam Hadwin and Cameron Smith reached career ratings highs coming out of the Masters. Hadwin, from Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, was 24th and moved up two spots to 35th in the ratings. The baby-faced Smith is the newcomer among this group of names after shooting a closing 66 to get into the fifth-place tie at the Masters. He’s been working his way up the ratings for about two and a half years and now is in the 48th spot. Smith is from Brisbane, Australia, near the eastern-most point on the continent.

And the guy in the green jacket Sunday? Patrick Reed is up five spots to 20th.