17
Apr

A look at the Valero Texas Open

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The PGA Tour has three events in Texas in an annual calendar of around 40 or 41 events. That works out to about 7.5% of the Tour being played in Texas. Just for a second, remember that number, 7.5%.

Charley Hoffman has lifetime earnings of about $25.9 million. Of that, he has earned just short of $4.9 million in Texas, or 19% of his lifetime earnings in either Ft. Worth, Houston, or San Antonio.

Charley has four lifetime wins on the Tour, one in Texas. That’s 25% of his wins coming in Texas.

Charley has 48 lifetime top-10s on the Tour. Ten were in Texas. That’s 21% of his top-10s coming in Texas.

Charley has 95 lifetime missed cuts on the Tour. Three were in Texas. That’s 3% of his missed cuts occurring in Texas.

The point is, Charley does much better in Texas than anyplace else. This week they are in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, where Charley has by far the best track record of anyone in the field. In the last 12 years, he has one win (2016), four other top 10s, five other top 20s, and no missed cuts. Take it for what it’s worth. (And believe it or not, Charley is a San Diego native who attended college in Las Vegas and lives there still.)

Another thing you might want to consider is that no one in the Hawley Ratings world top 10 is in the field, with second choice Matt Kuchar being highest-rated at no. 15. Sergio Garcia is the only other player entered who’s in the top 20, and Francesco Molinari, Pat Perez, Adam Scott, and Brendan Steele are the only ones from the top 30.

The statistics that have correlated most highly with success on the TPC of San Antonio layout over the last eight years are greens in regulation and scrambling, per the Hawley course fit statistics. Using that as a gauge, the player in the field with the best statistical fit for the course, believe it or not, is Chris Paisley, a 32-year-old Euro Tour player from England who was invited to the event and is making his first start in the U.S. since playing collegiately at Tennessee. Obviously his statistics are all generated on the Euro Tour this year. Others who may be good matches for the course are Martin Kaymer, Kevin Streelman, and Zach Johnson.

Some of the more prominent players who are looking better recently than prior form would show include Si Woo Kim, loser in the playoff last week; Garcia; Luke List; Jamie Lovemark; and Hoffman. Among the lesser knowns who have been trending upward are Abraham Ancer; Paisley, winner of the BMW SA Open in South Africa in January; Beau Hossler; and Grayson Murray, with top-10s in the Safeway and at Pebble Beach this season.

Hawley Ratings thru April 15, 2018

After a three-week fall from the no. 1 spot in the Hawley Ratings, Dustin Johnson is back where he was for a solid year prior to that. Johnson followed his embarrassing 0-for-3 performance in the Dell Technologies Match Play in late March with a top-10 Masters finish and a top-20 in the Heritage last week. Those finishes weren’t anything special by the standard he established in prior months, but the guy who moved past him, Paul Casey, was losing some of the extremely consistent touch he used to get to the top. Casey surprised everyone by missing the cut by four strokes last week at Hilton Head.

The other mover in the rankings last week was Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay had dropped to a 2018 low of 12th after missing the cut at the Masters. He bounced back with a top-10 finish in the Heritage last week and is up to seventh this week.

Three guys having good seasons and on the way up in the rankings are 28th-ranked Tommy Fleetwood, 33rd-ranked Adam Hadwin, and 45th-ranked Luke List. Fleetwood, 27, has a top-10 and three top-20s in six starts since January. Hadwin has three top-10s and one other top-20 finish in 2018. Since starting the year with two missed cuts, List, 33, has been wonderfully consistent with eight finishes in the top 30, including three top-10s. He was third last week.

Someone you may not have heard of with more of an international orientation is Seung-su Han. He is South Korean by birth, from Las Vegas by education, and primarily playing the Euro Tour. Within the last month, he tied for fifth in the PGA Tour Puntacana event and backed that up with a made cut at Houston. He has one top-10 and two top-20s in five Euro events and is 129th in the rankings.

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