In the huge-money Players Championship event, there is always the possibility – as everywhere on the Tour – that something really surprising will happen. For instance, think of the names Craig Perks (2002), Fred Funk (2005), and Si Woo Kim (2017). But the expected form holds fast more often than not, and the list of winners in this flagship event on the PGA Tour reads like a list of Hall of Fame candidates. This century it includes Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Matt Kuchar, Davis Love, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, and Tiger Woods, with the latter name the only one to appear twice.

Although Dustin Johnson has not done much in this event, he ranks as the favorite of the Hawley Ratings to win it this year on the strength of his high standard of play. He was 10th in the Masters, 16th in the Heritage, and has been off since then. However this event has not been kind to him. A 12th place finish last year and a 28th in 2016 are his two best showings at Ponte Vedra Beach in nine appearances. The other seven? Nothing more than once in the top 40, four made cuts, a missed cut, and a withdrawal.

Per Golfweek, the purse structure in this event will match that of the Masters, where Patrick Reed took $1.98 million off the top of an $11 million total disbursement. Thus it is not too much of a surprise that all of the top 50 players in the Hawley Ratings will appear, and 94 of the top 100. No. 59 Graham DeLaet is the highest-rated player not appearing.

Driving accuracy, driving distance, scrambling, and greens in regulation, in that order and without a lot of difference, are the top statistics in correlation with success at the TPC Sawgrass course per the Hawley course fit statistics. The players whose statistical profile best fits those correlation numbers are Alexander Levy, Kevin Streelman, Henrik Stenson, and Justin Thomas, in that order.

If you’re thinking that this might be a good spot for one of the 20-something stars to do something big, here’s a list of players in the top 16 in the Hawley Ratings with no one 30 years old yet: Tony Finau, Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Reed, Jordan Spieth, and Thomas. Of those, there are four whose performance numbers are on an upward arc over the last four appearances. In order starting with the greatest improvement, they are Reed, McIlroy, Finau, and Fowler. At not quite the same ratings level but still playing great recently are Bryson DeChambeau, Chesson Hadley, and Billy Horschel.

Paul Casey, who would have been the Hawley Ratings favorite, withdrew Wednesday due to a bad back.

In the Official World Golf Ratings, where Dustin Johnson’s fairly regular bursts of glory are fully appreciated, the lanky guy from South Carolina remains no. 1 by a small margin over Justin Thomas. In the Hawley Ratings, where Paul Casey’s steady play is fully appreciated, the Englishman and Johnson have swapped positions for the third time this spring, with Casey now back on top.

Their records are highly similar in 2018 – Casey and Johnson both have one win and six other top-20 finishes, three in the top 10 for Casey and four in the top 10 for Johnson. If you roll back the horizon to include everything since the start of 2017, Johnson has a big edge in victories (six vs. one for Casey) and Casey has a slight edge in consistency, having been in the top 20 in 20 of his last 25 appearances. And the other thing Casey has going for him is a fifth-place finish last week in the Wells Fargo while Johnson has been off the last three weeks.

They’ll both be playing in the TPC this weekend.

Among the young guns nipping at the heels of both Casey and Johnson, Reed, the Masters winner, appears to be the hottest challenger as the Tour heads into the core warm-weather events. And Thomas is the top player in the world per the Hawley Ratings if you look only at the last five months. He’s up from 11th to fifth per these ratings since Jan. 1, and he has increased his rating number from 1333 to 1518.

Aaron Wise, on the strength of last week’s runner-up finish in the Wells Fargo, is the top-ranked 2017-‘18 rookie at no. 85.