Considering that he is the no. 1 player in the world (per the Hawley Ratings), this has been kind of a low-profile spring for Dustin Johnson. He hasn’t played more than twice in a month since September, and his appearance in this week’s Memorial Tournament will be only his second time out since mid-April. Clearly he is pacing himself. One thing he has been is very consistent – counting back 12 events over eight months, he has missed the top 20 only once, in his embarrassing WGC-Match Play flop. Most recently he was 10th at the Masters and then 16th and 17th at the Heritage and TPC, respectively.

The Memorial is one of the top 10 events on the Tour in terms of the field that it attracts, and it is third only to the Wells Fargo and Genesis if you subtract the majors, the FedEx Cup series, and TPC. Among all that talent, Johnson rates as the top pick based on his steady play and basically respectable showings in this event – twice in the top five within the last eight years, two other finishes in the top 20, two mid-pack finishes, and two missed cuts.

There are lots of other good choices. Jason Day and Justin Thomas are solidly in front of the pack based strictly on performance over the last five months (with Johnson third). If you narrow it down to just the last four appearances, Charl Schwartzel is 10% ahead of everyone else with a missed cut at the Heritage followed by fifth at the Zurich, ninth at the Wells Fargo, and his runner-up spot at TPC. Day, Patrick Reed, and Chesson Hadley have been very good in the last four events also. Players who have best out-performed their established form over recent events include Schwartzel, Hadley, Bryson DeChambeau, Reed, and Jason Dufner. 2013 champ Matt Kuchar is tops in the field with $2.7 million of earnings here over the last eight years and probably tops in overall performance in that span with five top-10 finishes.

Scrambling, driving distance, and driving accuracy are the three statistics most highly correlated with success on this Muirfield Village course, a Jack Nicklaus creation. Players whose statistical profile best fits those correlation numbers are Thomas, Kevin Streelman, Rickie Fowler, and Jordan Spieth, in that order.

If you like the idea of a longshot, Aaron Wise, the winner two weeks ago at the Nelson, is probably the best rookie, and players outside the top 40 who are showing improved play recently include Rory Sabbatini, Danny Lee, Kevin Tway, and Russell Knox. Chilean rookie Joaquin Niemann, who turned pro just this spring, would be ranked somewhere in the 50s in the Hawley Ratings if he had sufficient appearances to qualify (he has seven, and the minimum is eight).

Located just outside Columbus OH, this is the PGA Tour’s first stop of the year in what you would call a northern state.