Brooks Koepka, winner of last week’s U.S. Open, is on top of the world and in the field this week for the Travelers Championship. Best to enjoy that look from the top while it lasts: The history on winners of majors coming back the week after their big win doesn’t show much in terms of back-to-back success.

In this decade – that’s 33 events from the 2010 Masters through the 2018 Masters, inclusive – there are only four cases of a winner of the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open, or PGA coming back to play the next week, and none of them finished in the top 10. The best was Jordan Spieth (current defending Travelers champion) coming in 11th in the Heritage the week after the 2015 Masters. We also had:

• Justin Rose 13th in the Travelers the week after the 2013 U.S. Open,
• Webb Simpson 29th in the Travelers the week after the 2012 U.S. Open, and
• Ernie Els missing the cut in the Canadian the week after the 2012 British.

So although the statistics point to Koepka as favorite in the Travelers, a lot of us will look elsewhere for a pick. And it won’t be difficult to find one. Maybe it’ll be difficult to narrow it down, but not to find someone capable of winning. Half of the top 10 in the Hawley Ratings – Paul Casey, Justin Thomas, Koepka, Jordan Spieth, and Patrick Cantlay – are in the field, plus five more of the second 10. Looking past Koepka, Webb Simpson is one choice as a hot player. His missed cut in the Colonial ended a streak of eight straight, and his last 10 appearances include the win in the TPC and four other top-10s, including last week. Xander Schauffele has missed two of the last four cuts, but the sunny side includes a runner-up finish at TPC and a sixth in the Open. Casey has been an amazing model of consistency – in 14 events since last fall’s Tour Championship, he has the win in the Valspar among 12 top-20 finishes. He has been in the top five of this event in two of the last three years.

The TPC River Highlands course has been good for the power players according to the Hawley course fit statistics. Over the past eight seasons, driving distance and scrambling have been the two statistics most closely correlated with success on the Connecticut track. Matching stat profiles of players from the current field with those indicators gives us Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Thomas as best fits for the course, with Casey, Emiliano Grillo, Spieth, and Kevin Streelman not far behind. Day, McIlroy, and Spieth may feel they owe something to the fans after missing the cut last week in the Open.

Bubba Watson, who won this event in 2010 and 2015, comes in without having finished in the top 40 of any of his four appearances since winning the Match Play and being fifth in the Masters.

Joel Dahmen may be on the verge of establishing himself as a player to be considered. He missed the cut his last time out (FedEx) but has four top-20 finishes since March. Among the rookies, Nate Lashley appears to have his game on the upswing, and Corey Conners likewise although not to the same extent. Since March, Lashley has made five of seven cuts with a best of 18th at Houston. Conners was eighth in the Colonial within a mini-streak of four straight made cuts.